Putting out a rough thesis to see if it floats.
One thing that I've thought a lot about, especially listening to Nate Duncan's and Ben Taylor's podcasts is the value added through passing. The idea that passing creates opportunity to score but not all passing is created equal. The classic example is prime Rondo standing at the top of the key to pass, waiting for Ray Allen to navigate the screens to get open versus Nash extending his dribble and probing the paint, looking for passing angles.
The one pass that sticks out, and I believe under valued, is the hit ahead pass. Of course Jokic and Lebron are incredible at this.
Why is it so valuable? Here are some explanations. 1) It catches players off guard as they're shuffling or jogging back on defense. In the same way backside cuts are so valuable, if you can place a hit ahead over an unsuspecting player than they're going to be inherently unprepared to play defense. 2) It ignites a fast break or semi-fast break where players are playing 1v1 and are most dangerous to score. 3) It is a fast play, it inherently adds pace to your offense. 4) Linked to reasons 1 and 2, players receiving the hit ahead pass are prone to getting fouled. These fouls might seem small but accumulate over the course of the game. 5) It minimizes the thinking and responsibilities of players. Instead of reading and reacting, a young receiver just has to catch the ball and look to score. No need to make decisions off the short roll or anything!
The recent examples I think of are Lonzo and Tyrese.
Minus his lost years as a Laker, Lonzo has been an engine for great offenses. Even back in his UCLA days, he took that team (that mostly had the same players the year before) and took their offensive efficiency to new heights. That tantalizing beginning of his years as a Bull, when his shot was fixed, his knees were healthy, my goodness that Bulls offensive looked incredible. I think it had a lot to do with Lonzo's passing, specifically that hit head pass where he could catch Lavine streaking down the court.
Tyrese's current torrential offensive onslaught, my goodness. Similar to Lonzo, after he found a team that allowed him to play this way, he's putting up crazy numbers in Indiana. His hitahead passes to Brown, Toppin, and Mathurin puts these guys on a one-track mind, to score. If you took Tyrese out and put let say D'Angelo Russell, an average PG without the hit ahead pass, that offense would tank.
But why is this pass under valued? Possible reasons: I think it's just seen as a basic pass. It doesn't have the razzle as other passes. It's just like a chest pass lol. Sometimes it doesn't lead to points so perhaps the hockey assists aren't seen as so sexy. I don't think its something taught! It looks silly when it doesn't work so there's high risks to the hitahead pass.
Thanks for reading. A ramble but worth investigating the value of this hit ahead pass.
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