anything that implements ARIMA
this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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Machine Learning
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R AutoQuant has ML based models that handle single series and panel data with lots of feature engineering options.
If the oscillations are periodic then Fourier series can capture them. If they’re white noise you can’t predict anything. If they’re autoregressive white noise you can fit an ARMA model on them.
Based on this figure, simple persistence would work very well.
Persistence says, the predicted value, is the same as 24 hours ago.
If the data has cultural effects, then the predicted value, is the same as 7 days ago (because, a Saturday is not like a Friday).
Arima for that
100%. I did exactly the way you described and it works awesome. And got to know it's called "persistence".
I implemented a very interesting and creative approach to train such a model, and will surely make a post here later for a detailed summary.
Great!
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