NFL

I remember when the Niners drafted Lance all the reports would come out of him throwing under 50 percent in practice, and all the players would say quotes about him like “ he’s learning and processing fast.” I wonder if they secretly knew they fucked up, and that’s why they retained Jimmy the next year just in case

Isaiah wilson

I remember after his first start, a lot of us in Arizona felt like Rosen was going to be pretty good.

He showed some promise early on, but it all got beaten out of him.

It's been a year or two since I last heard it but Tony Boselli has this story that he's told a few times over the years on the Jags Monday podcasts about this player who came into minicamp during his heyday as a player (don't remember if it was a drafted player or not) but he made it clear that it was obvious even in shorts that the guy couldn't play football

I’ve heard players with podcasts talk about knowing the team messed up within a couple practices.

Danny Watkins. I’m not sure he made it to training camp for the Eagles— first round pick, an Andy Reid selection, who decided to pursue his passion as a firefighter over being a first-round pick in the NFL.

AJ Jenkins

I think it is possible to know immediately, some dudes show up to camp out of shape with 0 study done and obviously have been riding on raw talent rather than any work ethic. The opposite can also be true.

Then, there is the difference between knowing and how long it takes to admit/acknowledge it. IMO it's obvious Bryce isn't going to be the guy but I'm not sure if they are ready to admit that.

Generally they know

I imagine there's a lot of confirmation bias. Coaches and players will say "yeah I could tell". But most rookies aren't great and do improve and I imagine unless they're a complete disaster it's hard to tell.

Tyreek Hill said Mahomes was trash as a rookie and imagine people have thought that about various rookies who've been good just don't then come out and say "yeah I thought he'd suck"

I remember reading the Jags training camp all the receivers were just amazed at Justin Blackmon. They'd all talk about these impossible catches he made. He would have been a God amongst receivers, but he got lost with drugs and lost interest in playing.

KeiVare Russell was a 3rd round CB that was so bad the Chiefs cut him after week 1 of the year they drafted him. Looked up his stats and he had a whopping 20 career tackles, 2 PD and one lone INT for his career.

What a waste of a pick.

I immediately knew Mac Jones was a bust. No data to back me up but when there were rumors that he would be coming to the 9ers I was LIVID.

Ended up with Trey Lance who by the time of the draft I was glad we picked him. Now I'm glad we got rid of him

The same draft I expected Jets to pass on Zach Wilson so we could pick him. I guess General Manager is not a carrer path for me

Yes maybe the first practice they'll have an idea

William Stephen Belichick started Drew McQueen Bledsoe over Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr so the answer is no. No one knows anything. This isn't Madden, there's no database of 'actual' ratings. You can win with backups and Joe Flacco and Joe Namath and sometimes even with Tim Tebow or Urban Meyer.

They figure it out and second guess themselves constantly. Even now, reasonable coaches can argue about how good Russell Wilson really was in his prime, and how bad Zach Wilson actually is.

Even Brady, the acknowledged greatest QB of all time, was barely winning games early on but was on a great team with excellent coaching. BTW, Brady has good size and throw but his real super power seems to be that he out-homeworked everyone else, to get rid of the ball fast because he had a good coaching staff early and worked on reading the defenses and connecting with receivers. He trained constantly with receivers before there was a limit on it, until the timing was perfect, and he got receivers to buy into it, no doubt helped by an early Super Bowl and 'bad cop' Belichick. He also bribed the OL and later in his career was obsessive about his health. NONE OF THAT could be measured in college, it didn't even exist.

Manning came in with 'pedigree' and knew how to run an offense by himself, at al all-star level. But Eli did too, and he was a goofy lucky turnover machine with excellent mentoring. Everyone 'knew' you couldn't teach accuracy until Josh Allen happened. Everyone 'knew' that Doug Flutie was 'too short' 20 years ago but Bryce Young still got drafted last year. Nick Foles was a backup, Wentz was an excellent starter, Jimmy G was a good QB, and Mac Jones was considered an all-star.

I don't, but lying about in interviews after he left was stupid.

Mac Jones had a fantastic rookie year. I doubt the Patriots coaches/FO saw coming what is happening today...

No....KC still thinks Mahomes is good.

Isaiah Wilson was an immediate red flag during camp

The record for fastest Bust remains in the NBA and the Celtics drafting poor Len Bias #1 overall

Varies based on the player. Dan Reeves pretty much knew Ted Gregory was a bust before the guy even suited up. In fairness being a 5'9" DT (allegedly) made it kind of obvious.