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[OC] The Chiefs (suddenly) can’t beat the blitz. | Film breakdown of why the Chiefs suddenly can’t beat the blitz, after dominating against it for years (youtu.be)

submitted 1 year ago by RonMexicoFilms@alien.top to c/nfl@nfl.community

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[–] Comprehensive_Main@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Listen if Toney gets healthy and gets back. The chiefs will go on a run.

[–] Shauncore@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Yeah IDK about this one.

Chiefs offense is still 3rd in EPA/P vs the blitz overall (runs and passes) and 2nd in EPA/P on just passes vs the blitz. Also they are 1st in success rate on passes vs the blitz.

If the point is that the Chiefs are now longer slinging it down the field vs the blitz, sure. But I wouldn't say they can't "beat" the blitz. They've just changed how they do it.

EPA/P on passes vs blitzes

2018 0.455
2019 0.495
2020 0.479
2021 0.469
2022 0.190
2023 0.253

Success% on passes vs blitzes

2018 56.1%
2019 58.9%
2020 59.3%
2021 61.4%
2022 54.1%
2023 56.0%

Average depth of target vs blitzes (in yards)

2018 8.5
2019 7.5
2020 8.9
2021 6.9
2022 8.1
2023 6.9

Absolutely less explosive vs the blitz (EPA can be a proxy for explosive plays) but still efficient (success rate). And the less explosiveness is evidenced by the lower ADOT. But with lower ADOT comes greater YAC

YAC%

2018 58.2%
2019 57.7%
2020 49.8%
2021 57.0%
2022 56.6%
2023 63.2%

Wouldn't call it being beaten, just doing it a little different.

[–] Thicbiscuit_datgravy@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

Where does Mahomes throw the ball when he's not blitzed? Hopefully Rice keeps this momentum up and the offense is able to hum again, but blitz or not it's ugly if that doesn't happen

[–] crewserbattle@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

I'm sure they'll find a way to beat it when Joe Barry is dialing it up