Really disturbing that the right axis is trending logarithmic
this post was submitted on 02 Mar 2024
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So, when can we safely declare 1.5C dead? Because, um, well, it's not looking great.
I would say yes, although there is the slim possibility that these few years are an outlier. No serious person should count on it, however, because the consequences of being wrong in spite of what we're seeing are downright apocalyptic.
This is an El Nino year too, La Nina years will drag down the average somewhat. You can even see the inflection in the chart when el Nino started. Though obviously the charts are not looking great, with or without El Nino.
While true, it's important to remember that 1.5 was the goal for 2050 (as a 30 year average). That seems fairly unlikely at this point
Oh I agree, absolutely. Just thought I'd add that as some people might wonder what that big jump was halfway through last year.
Once El Niño is done. This year is likely anomalous compared to average, but is likely the new normal for El Niño years. I’d say wait until the next ‘normal’ year ( not El Niño nor La Niña) to declare anything. That being said, you could claim that it is certainly going to die with low risk of being wrong.
We’re already past 1.5C.
This will be the coldest year of the rest of our lives.
Looks like we’re gonna be breaking records this year 😎😎🔥🔥
I read this as I sit here comfortably in my car, window open and in a t shirt.
What happened in 1980s to start this trend?
Sorry if this is just a facetious comment I'm replying to suggesting global warming didn't start until the 1980s. Anthropogenic global warming had been happening ever since fossil fuel emissions became widespread, but it is true that warming probably accelerated around then. One of the contributors, besides more co2 and other greenhouse gases, was a lot of action to reduce sulfate pollution in the 1970s. While sulfates are very harmful to human health and cause acid rain and all sorts of other badness, they were having a slight cooling effect. Also worrying is there are still large countries where sulfate emissions are less controlled, much to the detriment of the people that live there. However those sulfates may still be having a cooling effect, meaning our situation right now may be even worse than it seems with the sulfates still masking some portion of the warming.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/50-years-ago-scientists-puzzled-over-slight-global-cooling