Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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Here's a full version of Mr. Dalio's words, and below is a summary. Also, he's written several books on this topic, more info here.

While tariffs and their market impacts dominate headlines, the deeper, more critical issue is the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order—a rare, once-in-a-lifetime shift driven by unsustainable debt, inequality, and deglobalization.

Key forces at play:

Monetary/Economic Order Collapse: Unsustainable debt imbalances (e.g., U.S. overborrowing, China over-lending) are forcing a restructuring of global trade and capital flows.

Domestic Political Fragmentation: Rising inequality and populism are eroding democracies, paving the way for autocratic leadership.

Geopolitical Power Shifts: The U.S.-led multilateral order is fading, replaced by unilateralism and conflict (trade wars, tech wars).

Climate & Tech Disruptions: Natural disasters and AI will further destabilize economies and international relations.

Why focus on these? Tariffs are symptoms, not causes. History shows such imbalances lead to depressions, wars, and new orders. Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.

 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard lays out the likely steps in how this will happen in this article.

He says Trump will take direct control of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This, and his global tariff war, and tax cuts for the rich, will stoke huge levels of inflation in the US. Think of Erdogan's Turkey for comparison.

By this point, the foreigners who finance US government debt by buying Treasury bonds will start to lose confidence in the dollar as a currency.

This crisis will force money printing (quantitative easing) and capital controls, both furthering the currency crisis and perhaps leading to hyperinflation.

I hope there are sunny uplands for the world ahead, and the transition to get to them isn't too long. We were always going to have to endure economic pain as we transitioned to a world where robots/AI can do all work. I suspect that pain is going to start sooner than we expected.

 

Hyundai employs 75,000 people globally. Approximately half in South Korea, and half in facilities across the U.S., China, India, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Russia, Brazil, and other locations.

It will be interesting to see if these robots supplement that workforce, or replace some of them. Honda says its newest car factory in China needs 30% less staff thanks to AI & automation and its staff of 800 can produce 5 times more cars than the global average for the automotive industry.

 

A 2024 article talks about their strategy: they believe in a radical 'rebirth' of the U.S. through a major financial crisis—one that would force a debt default, eliminate the Federal Reserve, and replace the system with a libertarian model centered on cryptocurrency.

These ideas may have sounded like conspiracy theories in the past, but in 2025, they seem more plausible. The current administration thrives on chaos as a distraction, yet its policies increasingly align with this vision of engineered collapse. Is this what’s actually happening?

 

"Companies will have three months from when the guidance is finalised to carry out risk assessments and make relevant changes to safeguard users.........."Platforms are supposed to remove illegal content like promoting or facilitating suicide, self-harm, and child sexual abuse."

This is already impacting futurology.today - one of the Mods is British, and because of this law doesn't feel comfortable continuing. As they have back-end expertise with hosting, if they go, we may have to shut down the whole site.

How easy is it to block British IP addresses? Would that be enough to circumvent any legal issues, if no one else involved in running the site is British and it is hosted somewhere else in the world?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 2 points 2 years ago

I think I might try that approach, you're right it could motivate a subset of people. We have a pinned post spot at the top of the sub-reddit I'm going to use again in a few days. When I used it before, I'd guess a few thousand people read the post, but it seemed to generate very few people moving to the Lemmy site.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/15wi75l/rfuturology_is_now_in_the_fediverse_at/

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

Slightly off-topic, but how are you finding encouraging Reddit users to make the switch to Lemmy?

I mod r/futurology, which is close to 20 million subscribers, but most of the growth for futurology.today has come from within the fediverse. Any tips for encouraging Redditors to migrate?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 3 points 2 years ago

Submission Statement

When we think of novel interfaces for computing, they are usually voice-based or using sight (AR/VR glasses, etc). When you think about it, interfaces designed around our sense of touch have lots of advantages.

They're private. No one needs to know what you are using them for or what you are talking about. They're less cumbersome than the glasses or headgear AR requires. Sure they have limitations too, but I wonder what applications would work for this medium of communication. Real-time language translation? An AI delivering messages or advice in meetings when no one knows you are using it?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 5 points 2 years ago

OpenAI has been in the news lots lately, yet one aspect of its story gets unreported. OpenAI is in talks to strike a deal involving employee shares that would boost its value to $80 billion. That would make OpenAI the third most valuable private company in the world. Yet, what merits that valuation?

Even open-source free AI is snapping at its heels. It has no hold over AI technology, which looks to become widely distributed - not in the hands of a few. Is the brand & its employees really worth $80 billion? Somehow all the hype around OpenAI seems all about the money, and not the actual business, which is nowhere near as remarkable or special as all the hype would have you believe.

Still, we should be glad all this investor money is flowing to AI - it is probably accelerating its development, and everyone will benefit from that ultimately.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 7 points 2 years ago (1 children)

If you accept the premise, that when the day arrives AI & robots can not only do most work but are far cheaper than humans, then we are in times of revolutionary change. The logical follow-up is how will that revolutionary change translate in terms of power and political structures?

OP's point here is an interesting one. Less educated blue-collar workers have been losing for decades now thanks to automation and globalization. Yet they've lacked the power to do anything about it. Revolutionary change happens when counter-elites form at the top of society. These counter-elites are made up of the educated & what OP calls "failed elite aspirants" - in plainer language people who've gone into debt to be educated, but now can't get the life they feel their education owes them.

Now that AI is coming for their livelihoods we can expect their reactions to be different, but how?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

It's thought-provoking to wonder where synthetic biology technology will be in ten years' time. Its development is being accelerated by the rapid advances in AI. Deepmind's AlphaFold illustrates that trend in action.

If a fully synthetic yeast cell is just one year away - how soon will there be a fully synthetic multicellular organism? Evolution has created millions of varieties of those over billions of years, will AI be even more capable?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 2 points 2 years ago

Robotic exoskeletons are in development all over the world, but what is interesting about this one is how simple it is. That indicates in the future robotic exoskeleton use may be widespread because they are inexpensive.

If you're lucky enough to live to an advanced age, most people expect frailty at the end of their lives. Perhaps that will be less so in the future if you can use tech like this.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 6 points 2 years ago (9 children)

Will anyone be left buying new internal combustion engine cars by the end of the decade?

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 4 points 2 years ago (3 children)

The person making this claim, Peter Chen, is the founder of a successful robotics firm, Covariant, that already sells robots. Here are some of their robots in action packing meal kits. I think this gives his claims some weight and credibility.

Understandably enough, people often focus on the human job loss implications of this. But there are also other economic challenges. A world where robots and AI do more and more of the work formerly done by people will be a world of constant deflation. By eliminating human wages from production, everything they produce will get cheaper.

Many people don't appreciate it, but deflation is extremely destructive to how our economies are run. Over time it grows the size of debts relative to incomes and creates recessionary conditions that then often spiral into further problems. My guess is that we are going to start hearing a lot more about this in a few years.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

Great info. Out of curiosity what does your hosting setup say about visitor numbers? Futurology.today uses Cloudflare. They give a figure of about 10k per day for what they call unique visitors. That seems unduly high when you look at how busy our lemmy instance actually is. We have just short of 1K subscribers, so I would assume visitor numbers would be lower than 10k per day.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 2 points 2 years ago (3 children)

mmm, Swiss Re have been in the insurance game since 1863. I'd go with the idea they know what they're doing.

[–] Lugh@futurology.today 4 points 2 years ago

This therapy is so new no one has had it long enough to know if it will be a complete cure, but many people involved think it may be.

CRISPR gene-editing was discovered in 2012, but its application in medicine has only taken off in more recent years. There are problems to overcome, particularly around unintended consequences from imprecise targeting of genes. That said, the list of genetic diseases and predispositions to diseases is long, so there is a great deal of potential with this biotech.

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