Zombiepirate86

joined 1 year ago
[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

It's because it's a forward looking projection system with seasonality that's supposed to determine the value a player gives on a neutral court NEXT game. So if this number of games into a season Embiids value as determined by the algorithm (its a black box btw, unlike BPM where we know how it's calculated) drops a little bit it'll be reflected into his EPM. Or if the algorithm thinks that Embiids value dips after a few good games his EPM could go down because he had good games. Or the opposite could happen with SGAs.

The creator said it takes into account both of these things on a podcast. Which makes sense as DARKO is meant to be a fantasy projection system for betting. However the creator has stated he has never been able to make money with it. He states the reason why despite it working with backtesting is that line movements aren't figured in.

TLDR should never be used to determine who has had the better season so far, since it isn't designed to answer that question. However on here it's what it is used most often for.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

When the scheme is to have your play maker stand in the corner and shoot... then it doesn't matter how many playmakers you get.

Now the scheme could be lue's fault or it could be Kawhi and PG are unsigned going into next year so you better let them do whatever they want. It could be Harden deferring because he is new or Kawhi saying this is my team so this is how it's working. We really don't know.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Jamal had an all time WCF... specifically because AD played off Jokic. Neither Lebron nor RUI could get to the level of the screen fast enough to pressure Murray. Lebron guarded Jokic a 4th quarter didn't allow any points to Jokic and the media made a huge deal about it, then the Lakers never went back to it. Which I believe they went back and watched the tape and saw how Denver targetted Lebron on the pnr.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

On average they probably even with their REALLY biased scoring system miss 40 calls a game. We have the l2ms... they definitely miss on average at least 2 in the last 2 minutes which puts the missed call averages at over 1 a min.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

The biggest problems with officiating in the NBA is the rules, the way the NBA evaluates referees and the fact that some playwrs/markets are reffed differently. I suggest everyone read the L2Ms for an entire season.

The refs are given way too much leeway in application of the rules. The did an action affect SQBR is left open to interpretation by the individual refs. Which leads to wildly different outcomes on different possessions, and different crews. Even in the same game since as you go cross court the reffing responsibilities change. Meaning that when you are on defense different refs are responsible for different areas of the court than when on offense. Which leads to frustrations by NBA players and fans why are touch fouls being called on one side and the refs letting them play on the other side. Then when the 2 min report comes out say all the calls are correct cause both fall within the range of acceptable interpretation.

The NBA does NOT independently score a game. They take the call on the court and each call on the court independently of other calls on the court in their evaluation process. This is an awful way to ensure consistency. They should independently score the best call each play then evaluate the scoring of the refs on that. Speaking of scoring the refs, there isn't good enough incentives or punishments to get them to be consistent. I think people forget about referee reviews before the seacacus review center. The NBA couldn't get its refs to apply consistent standards on replay and had to take it out of their hands. So when people argue that there are reffing rewards and punishments... they aren't good enough they don't actually work. The ref union is waaaay too powerful.

Finally, the standards ARE different for different players and markets. People are really resistant to this, because they don't like the implication. I will defer to the players on this... they know this and have been pretty open about it. Andrew Bogut said that his career ended cause when he left the San Francisco market he could no longer get away with illegal screens. Everyone has seen 1 tech Draymond and yet everyone has seen Giannis and Jokic get tossed this year against Detroit.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

"How long before Luka can shrug off the terrible defender allegations?"

Never, defensive reputations almost never change. Players who are long since past playing good defense get All-defense nods, players who are looked at as bad defenders to start their careers never shake the reputation.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

EPM is a fantasy sports based model that is forward predicting with seasonality. It spits out a number that essentially ranks who the model thinks is going to have a better next game.

BPM is a backwards facing model that tries to tell you who has had a better season so far.

For almost all of these types of posts BPM is better, because you are asking who has been better so far not who is going to do better next game MJ or Jokic.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

It calculates your position, it doesn't go off listed position. Jokic is not a center under the BPM formula he is a forward just like Lebron.

[–] Zombiepirate86@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Kyrie. Tgere are alot of conspiracy podcasts, Black Israelism, and pseudo science podcasts.