riskable

joined 3 years ago
[–] riskable@programming.dev 27 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Apparently he didn't get the memo that the fastest growing religion in the US is "no religion". This is also true for the 2nd generation of immigrants.

While American Muslims have higher retention rates, their kids are also becoming atheist (in the US) at a rapid pace.

In short, he's got nothing to worry about! What's going to happen? Easy: Religion will become a smaller and smaller factor over time no matter who we "let in" 😁👍

[–] riskable@programming.dev 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I literally said I'm using qwen3.5:122b for coding. I also use GLM-5 but it's slightly slower so I generally stick with qwen.

It's right there, in ollama's library: https://ollama.com/library/qwen3.5:122b

The weights and everything else for it are on Huggingface: https://huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3.5-122B-A10B

This is not speculation. That's what I'm actually using nearly every day. It's not as good as Claude Code with Opus 4.6 but it's about 90% of the way there (if you use it right). When GLM-5 came out that's when I cancelled my Claude subscription and just stuck with Ollama Cloud.

I can use gpt-oss:20b on my GPU (4060 Ti 16GB)—and it works well—but for $20/month, the ability to use qwen3.5 and GLM-5 are better options.

I still use my GPU for (serious) image generation though. Using ChatGPT (DALL-E) or Gemini (Nano Banana) are OK for one-offs but they're slow AF compared to FLUX 2 and qwen's image models running locally. I can give it a prompt and generate 32 images in no time, pick the best one, then iterate from there (using some sophisticated ComfyUI setups). The end result is a superior image than what you'd get from Big AI.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 3 points 3 months ago

I just added up how much it would cost (in theory—assuming everything is in-stock and ready to ship) to build out a data center capable of training something like qwen3.5:122b from scratch in a few months: $66M. That's how much it would cost for 128 Nvidia B200 nodes (they have 8 GPUs each), infiniband networking, all-flash storage (SSDs), and 20 racks (the hardware).

If OpenAI went bankrupt, that would result in a glut of such hardware which would flood the market, so the cost would probably drop by 40-60%.

Right now, hardware like that is all being bought up and monopolized by Big AI. This has resulted in prices going up for all these things. In a normal market, it would not cost this much! Furthermore, the reason why Big AI is spending sooooo much fucking money on data centers is because they're imagining demand. It's not for training. Not anymore. They're assuming they're going to reach AGI any day now and when they do, they'll need all that hardware to be the world's "virtual employee" provider.

BTW: Anthropic has a different problem than the others with AGI dreams... Claude (for coding) is in such high demand that their biggest cost is inference. They can't build out hardware fast enough to meet the demand (inference, specifically). For every dollar they make, they're spending a dollar to build out infrastructure. Presumably—some day—they'll actually be able to meet demand with what they've got and on that day they'll basically be printing money. Assuming they can outrun their debts, of course.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 4 points 3 months ago

I personally love glm-5 and qwen3.5, specifically: https://ollama.com/library/qwen3.5:122b

I've used them both for coding and they work really well (way better than you'd think). They're also perfectly capable of the usual LLM chat stuff (e.g. check my grammar) but all the models (even older, smaller ones) are capable of that stuff these days.

For a treat: Have someone show you using some of these models to search the web! It's amazing. You don't see ads, you don't have to comb through 12 pages of search results, and they read the pages that moment (not cached) to give you summaries of the content. So when you click the link to go to the content you know it's the thing you were looking for. They're not using a local index of the Internet, they're searching on your behalf using whatever search engines you configured. It's waaaaay better than ChatGPT (which uses Bing behind the scenes whether you like it or not) or Gemini (which uses Google, obviously). The (self-hosted) LLM will literally be running curl for you on Google, DuckDuckGo, Bing, or whatever TF else you want (simultaneously) then reading each of the search results and using your prompt to figure out what the most relevant results are. It's sooooo nice!

FYI: Ollama.com's library page is actually a great resource for finding info on all the models that can be self-hosted: https://ollama.com/library

[–] riskable@programming.dev 1 points 3 months ago (4 children)

You seem to be unaware that it only takes about four NVIDIA HGX H100 nodes (32 GPUs) to train something like qwen3.5:122b. That model is about as good as ChatGPT was six months to a year ago (for the usual use cases). That would take a long ass time though (over a year) so you'd want probably 50-100 HGX H100s (or lots of the newer, cheaper ARM-based hardware devices).

The weights for qwen3.5:122b are open. That means that if you've got the hardware (loads of universities and non-profits have waaaay TF more than 4 HGX H100 nodes) you can continue modern AI development. Everything you need is right there on Huggingface! Deepseek's stuff is also open I think but I forget. Aside: In my head, I hold the qwen models as "the gold standard" based on many articles I've read about them but AI moves so fast, there might be better stuff out on any given day! I haven't read AI news in like a week so I could be all wrong and qwen3.5 is now sooo obsolete, hehe (that's how it feels to follow AI news, anyway 🤣).

Even more interesting: qwen3.5:122b isn't just an LLM. It does visual reasoning (e.g. give it a picture of a plant and ask it to identify it, count the number of screws in an image, estimate distances, etc) as well as the usual LLM stuff. You can read all about it here:

https://ollama.com/library/qwen3.5:122b

...and if you install ollama and spend $20 on ollama.com's cloud service you can actually try it out without having to own enough GPUs to cover the 245+GB requirement. I highly recommend that service! You can try out all the latest & greatest models on your local PC (or phone!) for any purpose you want for a $20. Whenever a new model is out they usually have it up on their servers within a day or two and it's fast, too.

FYI: I've used ollama cloud to evaluate models for coding (web dev with Python back end) and qwen3.5:122b is fantastic. It's not as good as Claude Opus 4.6 but it's close (and cheap) enough that you can just make up for the mistakes with extra instances that check the output with a critical eye (the latest trick in AI-based coding to get good output).

For reference, the University of Texas at Austin has data centers with 4,000 NVIDIA Blackwell (B200/GB200) GPUs, Harvard has 1,144 GPUs, and the University of Cambridge & Bristol (in the UK) has some monstrous mix of Intel and AMD GPUs. All three are perfectly capable of training new models from scratch or using continuing development on existing open-weight models like Deepseek and Qwen.

Generative AI isn't going anywhere. Furthermore, advancements in that space happen so fast that it's likely that in a few years we won't need so many GPUs/VRAM to train models. Especially if ternary models (and similar, like Google's TurboQuant tech) take off.

I know this is a long comment but I want to point something else out: If OpenAI and Anthropic go bust, that would flood the market with cheap GPUs. It would be a total price collapse and you can bet your ass that clever universities and service providers (like Amazon compute, but 3rd party) would snap those up and bring down prices across the board.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 12 points 3 months ago

I just looked up the actual numbers and the highest estimate I could find was that there could be about 70,000 babies born to parents on temporary visas each year (Center for Immigration Studies). Other figures suggested around 10,000 at most but I picked the biggest one to make a point:

It doesn't fucking matter.

70,000 births a year in a nation that has 3.5 million births/year is nothing. That's 2% so I'm going to reiterate that nobody should care. It's a stupidly small figure that is of zero consequence.

The only negative connotation one could derive from this figure is founded in racism.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 3 points 3 months ago

No no. I'm absolutely certain that the Trump administration considers birthright citizenship to be a problem—when it's non-white babies that are getting citizenship.

They need to stop beating around the bush and just say that.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 5 points 3 months ago (12 children)

Same places as usual: Academia and open source foundations.

That's where 99% of all advancements in AI come from. You don't actually think Big AI is paying as many people to do computer science and mathematics research as all the universities in the world (with computer science programs)?

It's the same shit as always: Big companies commercialize advancements and discoveries made by scientist and researchers from academia (mostly) and give almost nothing back.

Big AI has partnerships with tons of schools and if it weren't for that, they wouldn't be advancing the technology as fast as they are. In fact, the only reason why many of these discoveries are made public at all is because of the agreements with the schools that require the discoveries/papers be published (so their school, professors, researchers, and students can get credit).

Like I was saying before: You don't need a trillion dollars in data centers to do this stuff. Almost all the GPUs and special chips being used (and preordered, sigh) by Big AI are being used to serve their customers (at great expense). Not for training.

Training used to be expensive but so many advancements have been made this is no longer the case. Instead, most of the resources being used in "AI data centers" (and research) is all about making inference more efficient. That's the step that comes after you give an AI a prompt.

Training a super modern AI model can be done with a university's data center or a few hundred thousand to a few million dollars of rented GPUs/compute. It doesn't even take that long!

Generative AI improves at a ridiculously fast rate. In nearly all the ways you could think of: Training, inference (e.g. figuring out user intent), knowledge, understanding, and weirder, fluffier stuff like "creativity" (the benchmarks of which are dubious, BTW).

[–] riskable@programming.dev 28 points 3 months ago (4 children)

It's made from faux.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 9 points 3 months ago

Republicans! Your right wing media is already trying to pick your candidates for you.

Which is normal, actually. You pretty much always believe whatever TF they say and get mad at whoever TF they want. That's how right wing media works. Which group are you mad at today, again? It's Sunday, so... Transgender people, I think? It'll be immigrants on Mondays and Muslims, specifically on Tuesdays. Wednesdays are for Democrats, Thursdays for "the liberal media" (which doesn't actually exist; all major commercial news is owned by billionaires), and Fridays are for human interest stories like "the plight of the White South African". Saturdays are reserved for total bullshit (e.g. election fraud, "vaccines are bad!") and conspiracy theories (e.g. Seth Rich, Pizzagate).

Anyway, which would you prefer?

  • A shitstain on the carpet
  • A shitstain on the couch

Neither will prioritize what you care about but they'll both tell you they're going to protect your gun rights and that they're such pious Christians—the type that don't believe in caring for the sick, the poor, and hoard wealth. In other words, they're trying to convince you that they're just like you!

Are they right?

[–] riskable@programming.dev 11 points 3 months ago (7 children)

Trump has insisted the executive order is aimed at combatting “birth tourism,” immigrants who come to the United States briefly for the purpose of having a child.

This assumes that birth tourism—if it even exists in any non-trivial amount of babies—is a problem. Why would it be a problem? I don't get it.

The administration is always bitching about not enough babies... Make up your damned mind!

...or perhaps be more explicit about your true intentions?

[–] riskable@programming.dev 8 points 3 months ago (1 children)

These dudes could do pushups without using their arms.

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