this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2026
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Please, for the love of God, do not conflate prediction markets with polls.
Ironically, you've confused a conversation about odds with one about polls.
It's not about polls. We're talking about betting odds here. This is a gambling conversation. They said that Count Binface winning is paid 4:1, meaning an implied probability of 20%. I asked who is paying that, because it seems like that's far too low of a payout, giving Count Binface too high of an implied chance of winning.
If a candidate is being beat 4:1 in the polls, their betting odds would probably be 100:1 or higher.
The majority of the general elections I have lived through (it's been a few) have been called more accurately by the bookies than the polls.
They say people skip to the finance section of the paper for the actual news
Well hey a bunch of news outlets have been doing that so why shouldn’t I?