this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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2022 Eagles 10-10 Against the Spread. 2023 Eagles 6-2-2 (so far). Does that mean a team is potentially being underestimated? (alien.top)
submitted 11 months ago by ScienceNPhilosophy@alien.top to c/nfl@nfl.community
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“Against the spread” refers to betting on a team to perform better than the point spread set by the sportsbook. They must either win by a margin greater than the spread (for favorites) or lose by fewer points than the spread (for underdogs) for the bet to be successful.

Quote from NY Post Point spreads are supposed to be the great equalizer. History has shown that the eventual champions are often underestimated by the composite sum of market influences, even when they’re media-friendly, high-profile programs. Consistently clearing high expectations is a sign of greatness.

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[–] notGeronimo@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Only gambling addicts think record against the spread matters

[–] Pacificus3@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Well, it probably does tell us something, since the spread reflects people literally putting their money where their mouths are. It does seem like a team that consistently beat the spread could be said to be defying expectations in a positive way. That wouldn’t necessarily mean they were a good team, though, depending on where the spreads they beat were set to begin with.

[–] notGeronimo@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

I'm the case of this post, they have 1 more win above the spread than random chance would suggest. Which is meaningless.

But, even if they were if they were 8-2 against the spread, rather than 6-2-2, we'd expect about 1.4 teams to hit that mark every year if every spread was 50/50 to hit. The sample sizes in football aren't big enough to matter and patterns in over/unders or spreads are better explained by variance than anything sticky or predictive almost every time.