Yes. The #1 or #2 ranked team all year is being underestimated……
this post was submitted on 25 Nov 2023
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I think there is a difference between "Is this team underestimated in the real NFL game?" That answer is obviously not at all.
and
"Is Vegas underestimating this team by not making the spread larger?" And based on the stats I would say they are.
In NFL games the Eagles are estimated perfectly, but I'm betting the Eagles are underestimated.
Clarifying This question could apply to any winning team
The idea was about a team that was significantly better than even ATS
I came across these ATS stats for the Eagles today, but I couldnt find much research on this as a question. Thought I would put it out there as a topic question
Any research on this generally qould be appreciated
Nobody is ever gonna give us the same credit other good teams get because our wins are ugly
But they are still wins, and we have more of them than anybody else, and the power rankings reflect that so no I don’t think we’re underestimated
What comes to mind THIS year compared to 2022...
is we managed to win both againt Wash (last year they stopped our 8 game streak)
AND going into KC and managing to win by 4 (we were several point underdogs)...
So maybe this years team is a bit better, regardless of point spreads...
Eagles wins aren’t even ugly, they’re just steady and clean. No flashy blowouts just quality complementary football.
I like you.
The Eagles are a very good team. That's obvious. They also win a lot of games by 3-7 points that they, talent wise, should be winning by 10+, that's also obvious.
So then they should NOT be 6-2-2 ATS???
Maybe their opponents are all being overestimated.
Only gambling addicts think record against the spread matters
Well, it probably does tell us something, since the spread reflects people literally putting their money where their mouths are. It does seem like a team that consistently beat the spread could be said to be defying expectations in a positive way. That wouldn’t necessarily mean they were a good team, though, depending on where the spreads they beat were set to begin with.
I'm the case of this post, they have 1 more win above the spread than random chance would suggest. Which is meaningless.
But, even if they were if they were 8-2 against the spread, rather than 6-2-2, we'd expect about 1.4 teams to hit that mark every year if every spread was 50/50 to hit. The sample sizes in football aren't big enough to matter and patterns in over/unders or spreads are better explained by variance than anything sticky or predictive almost every time.
It probably moreso reflects bettor fatigue, if anything
Not as exciting to bet on the eagles another year in a row and so they're getting more favorable spreads.
More than likely though it's just the randomness of how the final scores work out players don't give a shit if they win by 6 or 7 because the line is 6.5.
In the opposite direction, the 49ers are often blowing out teams when their entire superstar talent, particularly on offense, is on the field.
It's just that given their recent history, I have zero confidence by the time of the Super Bowl or even the NFC Conference championship game that the 49ers will still have all of their superstar talent on the field.
6-2-2? they don't do half point increments so ties don't happen?
I think the market is appropriately rating the Eagles and they’ve simply been on the luckier side in some close games/spreads. They really didn’t deserve to cover against Dallas and the most recent Washington game.
6-2-2 against the spread is not that meaningful. If Vegas is getting it right it should be about 50-50. Here we have them beating the spread 6 out of 10 times, and not beating it 4 times. That doesn't seem extreme enough on this sample size to say that there is a systematic underestimation.
It could equally mean their opponents are being overrated
I mean i havent really been keeping up with spreads.
It’s difficult to say they are better or worse than people are giving credit without seeing the points required to “cover”.
If covering the spread requires you to beat a team by 13 thats very impressive. If its a 1 score spread then it becomes less impressive although still impressive. Not sure I an articulating my point well, super hungover sorry.
Their Pythagorean w/l suggests they are over performing a bit win/loss wise. Whether that holds up remains to be seen.
That said they are the best team in the nfl, and are rightfully the sb favs out of the NFC. They find ways to win.
The fact they defeated Washington - the team that ended their 8-0 start in 2022 - twice this year (in spite of Howell torching their secondary)
and defeating KC IN KC...
with significantly more injuries...
Makes me think THIS year's version MIGHT be a better team. But of course, the season isnt over yet