this post was submitted on 26 Nov 2023
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No. Sportsbooks inflate the line and odds for favorites and popular teams, then rely on those teams not covering the inflated line and losing more than the odds would suggest.
That’s why you inflate lines on popular teams, so the money equals out. They never said it was statistically fair.
Exactly. If they don’t and 90% of the bets are on the popular team, then the book looses big when the popular team wins.
It would be interesting to see a book be completely transparent about it and open the betting at even odds then move a point in the opposite direction every time the bets get off balance. Of course that would be annoying as a better deciding what to play only to have it constantly change.
The goal isn't for the money to equal out on both teams. If they did that, they would have less total bets and make less money, because people like betting on favorites. The goal is to make as much money as possible by having as many people as possible bet on a slightly inflated favorite.