TLDR: A few conditions exist where the Cowboys would be good enough to clinch the 5th seed by December 17, but bad enough where they are eliminated from division contention. The Cowboys would have a full month of not playing a relevant game (December 17th to January 13th-15th). This is an unlikely scenario but I got bored.
Conditions that need to happen:
COWBOYS
Week 13: W vs Seahwaks
Week 14: L vs Eagles
Week 15: W vs Bills
Record after December 17th: 10-4
Worst possible record: 10-7
Best possible record: 13-4
EAGLES
Go 3-0 over next three weeks
Week 13: 49ers
Week 14: Cowboys
Week 15: Seahawks
Record after December 17th: 13-1
Worst possible record: 13-4 with tiebreaks over cowboys
SEAHAWKS
Lose at least 2 of the next 3 with 1 loss coming against Cowboys.
Week 13: Cowboys
Week 14: 49ers
Week 15: Eagles
Record after December 17th: 7-7
Best possible record: 10-7 without tiebreaks
VIKINGS
Lose the next 2 games
Week 13: Bye
Week 14: Raiders
Week 15: Bengals
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
PACKERS
Lose 2 of the next 3
Week 13: Chiefs
Week 14: Giants
Week 15: Bucs
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
RAMS
Lose 2 of the next 3
Week 13: Browns
Week 14: Ravens
Week 15: Commanders
Record after December 17th: 6-8
Best possible record: 10-8
NFC SOUTH
Two of the Falcons (5-6), Saints (5-6), and Bucs (4-7) get to 8 losses by Dec 17th. Falcons and Bucs play each other so guaranteed L for one of them.
Next 3 if each team
Falcons: Jets, Bucs, Panthers
Saints: Lions, Panthers, Giants
Bucs: Panthers, Falcons, Packers
My favorite scenario some years back was the broncos could have the final week win mean the #1 seed, and a loss mean they miss the playoffs entirely.
It was super brief and didn't even last a full week after being pointed out but that would have been so fun to see
Was that the SB50 year? I remember we went into the Bengals game (I think week 16) not knowing if we’d make playoffs, then locked up #1 seed with a win against the chargers in week 17
My fave scenario will always be the Chargers-Raiders "tie" which could've knocked out the steelers
And that Raiders Chargers game came to a last second kick in overtime…I was stressed
It was the Bengals game in 2015.
We went to overtime with the chance of losing playoffs entirely or being the #1 seed.
DeMarcus Ware got a strip sack and won the game. Amazing moment.