this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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They currently convert 76.5% of their 4th downs, compared to a league median of 50%. Regressing them to the median would result in 4.5 more failed attempts. They average 2.54 points per drive, so 4.5*2.54 = 11.43 points on the season, or roughly 1 point per game. According to Vegas, a 1 point shift in point spread averages out to a 1.3% increase in win probability.
So about 1.3% of an advantage.
Ok so in Vegas that’s a huge edge. Is it in football?
They also run the play on 3rd down a lot and they run it at the 1 or 2 yd line regardless of down sometimes. It is definitely a lot more valuable than your brief 4th down analysis. It pretty consistently sustains drives that would have otherwise had a much higher probability of ending sooner.
This is what I wanted to say without being nearly as articulate or smart.
Thank you.
Wouldn't your math show 11.4pts per game increase
Does this also account for how much more they go for it on 4th vs. other teams because of it?
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