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How big of an advantage is it for the Eagles to only have to get 9 yards instead of 10 (alien.top)

submitted 9 months ago by CrossfitJebus@alien.top to c/nfl@nfl.community

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With the tush push being so effective, they effectively only have to get 9 yards every three downs. So what kind of advantage does it give them

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[–] JerryRiceDidntFumble@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago (6 children)

They currently convert 76.5% of their 4th downs, compared to a league median of 50%. Regressing them to the median would result in 4.5 more failed attempts. They average 2.54 points per drive, so 4.5*2.54 = 11.43 points on the season, or roughly 1 point per game. According to Vegas, a 1 point shift in point spread averages out to a 1.3% increase in win probability.

So about 1.3% of an advantage.

[–] CrossfitJebus@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

Ok so in Vegas that’s a huge edge. Is it in football?

[–] hyzerflip4@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

They also run the play on 3rd down a lot and they run it at the 1 or 2 yd line regardless of down sometimes. It is definitely a lot more valuable than your brief 4th down analysis. It pretty consistently sustains drives that would have otherwise had a much higher probability of ending sooner.

[–] Donttaketh1sserious@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

This is what I wanted to say without being nearly as articulate or smart.

Thank you.

[–] doctor_ben@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

Wouldn't your math show 11.4pts per game increase

[–] phil_yoo@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

Does this also account for how much more they go for it on 4th vs. other teams because of it?

[–] Donttaketh1sserious@alien.top 1 points 9 months ago

u/CrossfitJebus