this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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Basketball Reference has a Simple Rating System based on point differential and strength of schedule, not wins and losses. In the East, the biggest discrepancies are the Atlanta Hawks (ranked 9th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS), and the Miami Heat (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 9th according to SRS).
In the West, the biggest discrepancies are the Golden State Warriors (ranked 10th according to wins and losses but 5th according to SRS) and the Dallas Mavericks (ranked 5th according to wins and losses but 10th according to SRS). SRS is usually considered more accurate by bettors, so perhaps the Hawks and Warriors are better than they appear and the Heat and Mavs are worse than they appear.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2024.html
Heat outperforming their net rating is definitely a trend, and I wouldn’t bet on it stopping. They tend to win most of their close games.
Last year’s Heat were bottom 10 in net rating and they made it to the finals.
Mavs however, wouldn’t surprise me if they dipped a bit.
Yeah we have plenty of evidence to suggest this metric doesn’t really relate to us
This year has seemed to be a little different for the heat, they have blow multiple 20 points leads and struggled when close (e.g. vs knicks and bulls most recently)
Hopefully when Tyler is healthy that will change