this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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They currently convert 76.5% of their 4th downs, compared to a league median of 50%. Regressing them to the median would result in 4.5 more failed attempts. They average 2.54 points per drive, so 4.5*2.54 = 11.43 points on the season, or roughly 1 point per game. According to Vegas, a 1 point shift in point spread averages out to a 1.3% increase in win probability.
So about 1.3% of an advantage.
Does this also account for how much more they go for it on 4th vs. other teams because of it?