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State money comes from tax payers and companies making a bunch of money. Increased interest rates (reducing spending and therefore income), and stock market dip in the middle of the year means less money. My vague understanding is that the state doesn't have an amazing way to hold over money for the swinginess of the income the state brings in. That being said, they do store some money for this kind of situation (and did during that surplus year) but the swings can be too drastic to adequately save for based on current policies.
Another possible explanation I heard involved the tech sector, which made massive profits at the beginning of COVID and then took a dive afterwards when people started venturing out of the house and using their services less. It's not the only factor in the revenue loss, of course, but I bet it was a not-insignificant chunk of change.