this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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News

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171
How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust: A missile scientist used mathematical models to push the nation’s one-child policy. Its legacy is proving hard to shake. (www.wsj.com)
submitted 8 months ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world
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China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

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[–] ChairmanMeow@programming.dev 20 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The problem is the aging population.

[–] Altofaltception@lemmy.world 59 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

[–] Jaytreeman@kbin.social 28 points 8 months ago (1 children)

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

[–] Theprogressivist@lemmy.world 36 points 8 months ago

The problem is lack of bodies for the meat grinder that is the world economy.

The problem is the lack of bodies to make rich people richer

"They're the same picture"

[–] frezik@midwest.social 1 points 8 months ago

It can be a problem for any structure of society. Lots of old people and not enough young people to support them. Or look at Detroit. Infrastructure designed for a city twice the size, and still has to be maintained with a shrunken tax base.