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I'm inclined to agree with you but there's a remote chance the puppet state of Belarus has the capability to launch. If they do, Russia can try to go for a facade of, if not innocence (that ship has sailed), less-than-complete guilt. Can't imagine that anyone would buy it though.
Yeah, I've thought the same with North Korea and their nukes. China and Russia might just see them as an entity that might nuke their enemies to hurt them but without the destruction capability that might trigger a MAD style "launch everything in response!" while they themselves can keep the MAD facade up (and I'm skeptical about MAD because I don't think many with the power to launch will make the decision that it's time to end civilization as we know it, though a nuclear exchange could likely escalate to that eventually even if it didn't immediately).
But I also don't think such a facade would hold up with Belarus. Maybe North Korea could be argued to be independent enough from China and Russia that a launch from them shouldn't automatically be considered something that Xi and Putin both signed off on. But Lukashenko is only in power because Russia keeps him there and even if he can order a launch, if Putin didn't support one, he'd probably kill him himself if he can get to him quicker than NATO can. That might be the only reason NATO wouldn't go all out instantly, just to see how Russia reacts to decide if it's a "end Belarus and hope it doesn't kick off ww3" or a "welp, ww3 just started" scenario.