this post was submitted on 09 May 2024
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Maybe. But the article is mostly highlighting the fact that we do a poor job of educating people about investing and budgeting. For example:
I'm guessing she sold when the market went down and locked in losses, and then didn't buy again until stocks rebounded. So the classic "buy high, sell low" strategy.
The proper approach is to buy and hold until retirement. See the story of Bob, the world's worst market timer for an example of how buying and holding will work even if you buy at all the wrong times. Bob was fine in retirement because he never sold.
The proper solution here isn't to go back to pensions, it's to provide sane defaults and simplify the programs so everyone can understand it will enough to use it properly.
There are lots of retirement account types
Do you know how many retirement account types there are (not investments, not plans, but account types)? Here's a few off the top of my head (not exhaustive):Each has a different set of features and caveats, as well as (in)compatibility with other plans. If you change sectors (e.g. you go from public school to private school), you may have completely different retirement options. Some employers can offer multiple of the above as well, and each employer has different rules for their plan.
Add to that three different contribution options (pretax, Roth, and after tax), and the average person is rightfully confused. It's the same problem as the tax system generally, it's too complicated.
My proposal to unify retirement accounts
This:
I'm very much against pensions because, as an insurance product, they'll provide worse value vs a defined contribution plan, assuming the defined contribution is invested according to best practices (aggressive early on, then more conservative as you get closer to retirement; i.e. a target date fund).
In fact, I'm convinced we should replace Social Security with a Negative Income Tax (essentially means-tested universal basic income) to ensure that everyone stays out of poverty. Social Security doesn't do that, but that's kind of how many think of it. I don't understand why we're giving benefits to wealthy people, we should be concentrating those on the poor. In fact, this safety net shouldn't be just for retirees, but anyone below a certain income threshold, though we can certainly start with an age limit that reduces as people move out of the current SS system.
But the point is we can't trust personal responsibility. If a significant volume of the population is basically guaranteed to not invest and save voluntarily for retirement that is always going to be a social problem. Also, there's the problem of employers voluntarily providing retirement programs. Sure, I think there's a question of what or how that savings is invested for retirement (pension, 401k, etc), but it seems there needs to be more mandate to require employer's of a certain size to support retirement plans. And possibly even more mandate to require contributions to retirement plans. The article describes this in Australia: "Australia’s Superannuation Guarantee requires companies to contribute the equivalent of 11 percent of an employee’s monthly pay to an investment account that is controlled by the worker, who can also put in additional money. The “Super,” as it is known, includes full-time and part-time workers and has proved to be enormously successful. With its relatively small population — just 27 million — Australia now has the world’s fourth-highest per capita contributions to a pension system, and almost 80 percent of its work force is covered."
Pretty much all companies over a certain size support retirement plans, that's not really the issue. The issues are:
The reason the 401k is so complicated is because brokerages want to keep it that way. They literally get paid to "customize" a plan for the company, but what that really means is charge a ton for compliance paperwork nonsense and limit options. A lot of the crappier plans have super expensive funds and are almost worse than forgoing the tax break and just investing in a regular brokerage account.
Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm talking about. Extend the IRA (already exists) to allow employer contributions (like the HSA) and increase the limit to match 401k limits. Then eliminate the 401k, 403(b), and a handful of others to just use the IRA that employees already control. This does lose some features, such as loans, and I suppose those could be supported by IRA plans if wanted (ideally, loans against retirement plans wouldn't be allowed to prevent people from shooting themselves in the foot).
The big retirement firms are going to fight tooth and nail though, just like Turbo Tax fights against tax simplification. But that would get us 80% of the way to what Australia has. The last 20% is a minimum contribution, which I think isn't needed, and instead we should try using defaults (e.g. contribute 5% for new hires, 1% for existing hires minimum by default, and increase 1% per year until 10% or whatever). A lot of companies already have a matching program that works well, and it's honestly not worth fighting companies over what the minimum should be.