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The FEC chair could spin it and say that because a decision has not been made of is allowed or not, access to the money will be frozen
Based on what? The chair isn't a tiebreaking vote, they don't just get to make policy choices on an even split. The FEC needs 4 votes to act. There's no spin involved, if they don't have 4 votes, they can't make an action. The chair doesn't get to define the default result.
Well that is a relief. Although that relies on the chairman not pulling the "bullshit" card for Trump and saying the rules are different for this. MAGA does not respect precedent or the law.
They just don't have that power. That's not what a chairperson is. They can say whatever they want, it doesn't make it real. You don't have to rely on Republicans to not spontaneously manifest new authority. They aren't magic.