this post was submitted on 16 Aug 2024
633 points (97.6% liked)

News

23259 readers
3164 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil


Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.


2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.


Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.


3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.


Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.


4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.


Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.


5. Only recent news is allowed.


Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.


6. All posts must be news articles.


No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.


7. No duplicate posts.


If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.


8. Misinformation is prohibited.


Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.


9. No link shorteners.


The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.


10. Don't copy entire article in your post body


For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

It’s almost like there’s no connection between administrations and the stock market

That's not true. Republican Presidencies very regularly implement large tax cuts at the beginning of their administrations. This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment, which results in speculative bubbles, which tend to resolve as market crashes 4-8 years later.

Reagan, Bush Jr, and Trump all kicked off this cycle. Even Obama is kinda-sorta guilty of it, having slashed taxes as part of the '09 rescue package and inflating a small bubble that popped in 2014. Trump's collapse came on a bit earlier than expected, thanks to COVID, but he'd paved the way to the Crypto Crash (FTX devastated large parts of the off-book financial economy and kicked off an inflationary cycle as big finance guys scrambled to reposition) from day one of his administration.

I'd argue that the current AI bubble is in no small part a function of Biden's over-investment in Big Tech at the expense of manufacturing and transit. But we're still waiting to see how that pans out.

investors know they’ll make shittons of money either way

Plenty of investors ride the boom/bust cycle to their own demise. We just don't talk about them the way we talk about the Gates and Buffets and Bezoi, who diversify thoroughly.

But what presidents direct the national budget to do absolutely matters in the downstream industry. Whether MilTech or Telecom or Construction or Agriculture or Semiconductors or Intercontinental Logistics outpaces the field depends heavily on what direction the President moves on domestic subsidies, government contracts, and international trade deals.

If Bush Sr and Clinton had told their administrations to invest big in Linux, I question whether Microsoft would be a household name. I can tell you for a fact that Exxon adopting Oracle Database Suite was what transformed Larry Ellison from small time software salesman to billionaire. That came on the heels of the Reagan DOJ fucking over Inslaw, Inc (which was on the forefront of relational database tech) and trafficking the PROMIS database engine to partisan insiders like Ellison (former CIA contractor) and Perot (oil industry flak).

We're seeing the modern incarnation of this with guys like Thiel and Musk, who are cleaning up on government contracts in information security, automotive subsidies, and aerospace technology largely by buying out the competition with cheap loans sourced through Federal Reserve friendly private banks.

Presidents (and their downstream cronies) have enormous influence on which businesses and industries succeed and which ones fail.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

"This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment."

Not anymore. The last time Republicans tried that trick (Trump's presidency) everyone just spent it all on stock buybacks.

And the AI bubble is being driven by investors desperate for a new get rich quick scheme after crypto collapsed. The companies that were shilling blockchain are all shilling AI now.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago

The last time Republicans tried that trick (Trump’s presidency) everyone just spent it all on stock buybacks.

Which caused the market to surge into a bubble, and pop when bullish returns failed to materialize at the onset of COVID.

And the AI bubble is being driven by investors desperate for a new get rich quick scheme after crypto collapsed.

It's a pile on effect from empty promises (businesses promising to eliminate the need for large portions of their staff) resulting in surging asset prices.

But the drive is the strong dollar plus cheap borrowing rates. The big investment in AI is happening through the FAANG stocks, not directly from crypto heavy investment banks.