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Nate Silver isn't worth listening to.
That being said, I have my contingency plans laid out.
There's also this:
Nate Silver knows how elections work. He knows there is no such thing as more money than you need in a presidential campaign. That's an astoundingly dishonest thing to say from someone like him.
I'll never trust that degenerate grifter anyways. When I heard he was so cocksure of his stats knowledge that he ~~lost~~ spent 10k a day on gambling, that's all I needed to never listen to him again.
At the end of the day, his prognostications are a very expensive coin flip.
Edit: see the strikethrough above.
I didn't hear the gambling thing about him but at this point, I'm not surprised.
Yeah he's got a new book out which is very Tim Ferris adjacent talking about "professional risk takers" and how they risk it all to win big in their fields. Of course he talks about crypto and AI. He's a stooge.
His books blurb:
I don't have blue sky, but thought this thread was illustrative of the book: https://bsky.app/profile/davekarpf.bsky.social/post/3kzwvdiolld2a
Oh god, it's like a curated "people you should never listen to" list.
On top of all this interesting and problematic stuff about Silver himself, I think polls are very unreliable here in the post-truth world. Playing spreadsheet games with multiple polls might be marginally better. But IMO the whole thing suffers from GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). People lie to pollsters for myriad reasons. And that's just the small population of people they can even get a response from.
Also a lot of people just dont do polls, I have been practically spammed by polsters for the last few months via text and I shall continue to ignore them.
Silver is using poll numbers from before the debate. It's not worthless, but it's outdated information.
But I want Democrats feeling the pressure and vote like Democracy depends on it, so I'm happy if he keeps fluffing that pillow.
His model actually accounts for whether polls were taken before or after an event, and raises and lowers their impact and error margin based on that. Right up to the debate, his model was giving Kamala a <30% chance and it's only the inclusion of new polls since the debate that have moved her to 50%.