this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2023
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It's still probably the best, simple metric for assessing a team's quality at a glance. At the end of the day it shows you how well a team creates goal scoring opportunities and how it prevents goal conceding opportunities, everything else is down to shot stopping and finishing (in theory).
I think it'd be mostly fair to say it shows who 'plays the best football', less whether a team is actually effective at playing football.
It’s not just down to shot stopping and shooting. It’s also about the quality of the assists and the position of the defence.
I still agree it is the best simple metric to predict how teams will perform over a season. VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga for example will probably finish really high. I would bet top 6.
Absolutely, though aren't assist quality and defensive positioning both factors that influence xG and xGA? That's kind of my thinking when saying why it's a good metric.
Is there a difference between playing good football and playing effective football? Is a team that creates a lot of chances and can barely finish any of them any better than a team that creates few chances but can normally finish them?