this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2025
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It will burst. AI is improving at the same rate it always has and no one's surprised, just LLMs have gotten attention from normal users who seem to think "this is AI".
For actual AI, nothing has changed. You still need extremely well governed data and lots and lots of controlled training, lots and lots of condition farming and resolving, all at considerable cost not worth it for BAU, just AI-soecific projects.
It's already bursting, as people realise what is AGI and what is non-logic LLMs and why the latter has limited use, especially with awful mass "training".
The most realistic outcome is that LLMs are able to assist in increasing the pace of AGI.
This is blatantly false, there's a reason there is talk of the cold winter of AI, and the long walk in the desert.
The desert walk was at least 2 decades of very little progress despite big investments, the cold winter was another decade without much progress because of disillusionment so nobody wanted to invest in it.
AI has progressed more for the past 10-15 years than it did for 40 years from about the 70's to about 2010.
I assume you mean strong or general AI, and that's not what we are debating here, because that is not a reality yet.
Something that doesn't exist obviously can't burst.
The reason is corny grifters pushing wacky "talk" in order to profiteer off pseudo-science.