this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2025
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Yes and because C3 is a golden ball, you should confidently switch to the second door. Because now it's just the Monty Hall problem with balls instead of goats. When the madman chose a door to opened, he deliberately chose a bad (mixed) door, otherwise he would have given away the correct location. The fact, that he opened the third instead of the second gives you new information, that you can take advantage of by switching, increasing your chances. Had the ball been silver, it might have been revealed to come from a bad door.
Edit: damn I just realized he picked the ball from the first door, not the second. Okay in that case we might actually have to calculate probabilities, but I'm too lazy for that.
I have no idea what the ball thing is about. I just assumed that since he was a madman, he was just doing madman things.