this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2023
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Retroactive Draft Shaming
"We could've drafted Giannis/Kawhi/Jimmy Butler/Patrick Mahomes!"
Yes, clearly there are good picks and bad picks, but players tend to go where they do for a reason, context matters, and the range of outcomes is large and unknown.
Someone a while back posted that the Jazz passed on Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard... twice! and was sick over it.
Kawhi went #15 and Jimmy went #30 in 2011.
Enes Kanter, who the Jazz picked 3rd, was considered a top prospect at the time.
Additionally, the 10-11 Jazz were jammed at forward and had AK47 playing starter minutes and had just drafted Gordon Hayward.
It would've been insane if they had taken either Jimmy or Kawhi at the small forward position, especially with a team full of veterans that thought they should be competing (lol).
If they take either of them at 3 they get laughed out and who knows how their careers would've gone. I believe Kawhi would've been good, but he couldn't shoot for shit in college and learned that at San Antonio.
A corollary is the pick shaming:
"That draft pick ended up being Ricky Rubio!"
You have to evaluate the trade at the front end, not the back end.
You don't know. You're just doing the best with the information you have.