For the past 40 years, nearly every single championship team has had at least one player that was a 1st team all-NBA selection in years prior to that title year.
I could only find 2 exceptions to this rule:
- Steph Curry's first selection to 1st team All-NBA was the year he won his first title.
- The 04’ Pistons did not field a player ever selected that list.
For every other year, the champs had at least one such player. In nearly 50% of those years, the champ fielded 2 such players.
So, who meets the criteria this year?
- 76ers
- Warriors
- Clippers
- Lakers
- Suns
- Bucks
- Celtics
- Nuggets
- OKC
- Mavericks
We can further divide this list based on other data that’s likely not as accurate as the 1st team metric.
First, we can look at the average age of the roster weighted for minutes played. The average age of title-winning rosters, when weighted for minutes played, comes in at 28.234 years. Based on last season's numbers (all I had available, but enough to usefully ballpark), the following teams fall into this optimal age range:
- Nuggets
- Warriors (shockingly, but this might go up dramatically depending on CP’s usage)
- 76ers
- Mavs
- Lakers (Again, lightly shocking but the bottom half of the roster is pretty young.)
- Suns
- 76ers
- Celtics
We can then divide this list again by teams with 2+ stars with 1st team selections. Teams with 2 stars of this caliber win in nearly 50% of the seasons for the past 40 years. This means these teams have a much higher chance of winning in any given year than teams with just one 1st team guy.
- Lakers
- Suns
Some caveats regarding 2 star rosters*
The Warriors technically fit, but CP3 is past his statistical prime and that likely reduces the impact.
The 76ers technically fit while Harden is there, but he's likely to leave (and also past his statistical prime)
Conclusion: Anything can happen and the 04’ Pistons are proof, but the most probable outcome is that one of the above teams will win this upcoming year. The teams with talent in that top 5-7 range almost always win.
My personal prediction:
The Suns: Their offense is going to be really hard to stop. Making shots at a really high percentage makes playing defense easier because you're able to set your defense more frequently.
The Nuggets: Best player in the league, in his prime, with great support.
The Celtics: Eventually they'll get over the hump. Could be this year
The Lakers: If healthy*, I think theres enough there around Bron/AD
Dark horse: The Mavs - Sometimes a guy is just so good, he pulls a weak roster all the way.
You had me until the Mavs lmfao they won't even make the play-in
The Mavs look like a 50-win team to me. It's weird how many people are writing them off after one bizarre season with a bunch of roster turnover.
This is my gut too. IF Kyrie plays close to a full season, those two guys are talented enough to be an issue. Luka really has generational talent potential though.
They were a solid playoff team for pretty much all of last season until they collapsed at the very end and even that took some injuries to an already depleted roster. No one even considered that they could miss the playoffs until the last couple of weeks of the season. I'd be shocked if they weren't a top-6 seed in the west as long as they remain relatively healthy, and I sure as hell wouldn't want to face them in the first round.
Which is why I caveated it with "dark horse". You may be right. I believe that Luka has the potential during his peak to absolutely drag a bad roster pretty deep though, so I guess we'll see if he's there yet.