science

In his memo, Gates wrote that global warming “will not lead to humanity’s demise”. This misunderstands climate scientists’ warnings, said Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy.

“I have not seen a single scientific paper that ever posited that the human race would become extinct … it’s a straw man, the way he’s proposing it,” she said. “He’s speaking about it as if scientists are saying that, and we’re not: what we are saying is that suffering increases with each 10th of a degree of warming.”

The memo from a “very influential person who controls a lot of money” hinges on “inarguably a false binary” between a world where everything is fine and “literally the end of the world”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources.

“In reality, there’s a whole hell of a lot of bad things that can happen in between,” he said.

Exactly. So many people act like there are only two possibilities: climate change is a hoax, everything's fine and growth and prosperity will not be affected by global warming. Or climate change is real and it's going to kill us all. Neither of those two scenarios are likely. We're not going extinct, but everything isn't just going to be hunky-dory, either.

The thing is, no one can tell you exactly where we'll be by 2100, because that depends on what we do between now and then. If we get our act together and bring down emissions rapidly, we will be in a better spot in 2100 than if emissions remain elevated for longer.

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is that emissions will stay elevated for a while. I don't see us decreasing our GHG emissions significantly any time soon.