| Rank |
Team |
Adj. Win % |
Weekly Ranking Change |
| 1 |
Philadelphia |
.775 |
+1 |
| 2 |
Jacksonville |
.718 |
+2 |
| 3 |
Baltimore |
.708 |
-- |
| 4 |
Kansas City |
.695 |
-3 |
| 5 |
Detroit |
.688 |
+2 |
| 6 |
Miami |
.652 |
+3 |
| 7 |
Seattle |
.625 |
+5 |
| 8 |
Cleveland |
.613 |
-3 |
| 9 |
Dallas |
.609 |
+2 |
| 10 |
Pittsburgh |
.599 |
-4 |
| 11 |
San Francisco |
.586 |
-3 |
| 12 |
Buffalo |
.586 |
+3 |
| 13 |
NY Jets |
.583 |
-- |
| 14 |
Cincinnati |
.574 |
+4 |
| 15 |
Minnesota |
.477 |
+5 |
| 16 |
Atlanta |
.473 |
-2 |
| 17 |
Tennessee |
.469 |
+4 |
| 18 |
Tampa Bay |
.466 |
-1 |
| 19 |
Houston |
.462 |
-9 |
| 20 |
Indianapolis |
.458 |
-4 |
| 21 |
New Orleans |
.449 |
+2 |
| 22 |
LA Chargers |
.446 |
-- |
| 23 |
LA Rams |
.445 |
-4 |
| 24 |
Denver |
.391 |
+5 |
| 25 |
Washington |
.380 |
-1 |
| 26 |
New England |
.366 |
-- |
| 27 |
Las Vegas |
.362 |
-2 |
| 28 |
NY Giants |
.324 |
-1 |
| 29 |
Green Bay |
.288 |
-1 |
| 30 |
Carolina |
.258 |
+2 |
| 31 |
Chicago |
.251 |
-1 |
| 32 |
Arizona |
.225 |
-1 |
I'm using a simplified/modified Colley Matrix iteration process (https://www.colleyrankings.com/method.html)
To summarize, you take the win percentage of every team and correct it against the win percentage of their opponents. Then you have a new win percentage. And I repeat that process until the correction factor is below .001. Essentially this is what I would expect the win percentages to be if the teams played an average team every week.
It’s interesting to see where the pure win percentage approach diverges from the margin of victory approach that drives football-reference’s SRS. Top 5:
(1) BAL
(2) SFO
(3) DAL
(4) JAX
(5) BUF
The Eagles are down at 9 in SRS. The biggest differences are the Texans going from 8th in SRS to 19th in the colley matrix and Pittsburgh which jumps from 20th SRS to 10th. San Francisco jumps 9 spots up from 11th in colley to 2nd in SRS. Jets also move nine spots in the opposite direction (22nd SRS and 13th adjusted win%).
The correlation of the ordinal ranks is .81, so there’s still broad agreement between the two rankings but the disagreements are interesting.