this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2023
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Rank Team Adj. Win % Weekly Ranking Change
1 Philadelphia .775 +1
2 Jacksonville .718 +2
3 Baltimore .708 --
4 Kansas City .695 -3
5 Detroit .688 +2
6 Miami .652 +3
7 Seattle .625 +5
8 Cleveland .613 -3
9 Dallas .609 +2
10 Pittsburgh .599 -4
11 San Francisco .586 -3
12 Buffalo .586 +3
13 NY Jets .583 --
14 Cincinnati .574 +4
15 Minnesota .477 +5
16 Atlanta .473 -2
17 Tennessee .469 +4
18 Tampa Bay .466 -1
19 Houston .462 -9
20 Indianapolis .458 -4
21 New Orleans .449 +2
22 LA Chargers .446 --
23 LA Rams .445 -4
24 Denver .391 +5
25 Washington .380 -1
26 New England .366 --
27 Las Vegas .362 -2
28 NY Giants .324 -1
29 Green Bay .288 -1
30 Carolina .258 +2
31 Chicago .251 -1
32 Arizona .225 -1

I'm using a simplified/modified Colley Matrix iteration process (https://www.colleyrankings.com/method.html)

To summarize, you take the win percentage of every team and correct it against the win percentage of their opponents. Then you have a new win percentage. And I repeat that process until the correction factor is below .001. Essentially this is what I would expect the win percentages to be if the teams played an average team every week.

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[–] splat_edc@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

It’s interesting to see where the pure win percentage approach diverges from the margin of victory approach that drives football-reference’s SRS. Top 5:

(1) BAL

(2) SFO

(3) DAL

(4) JAX

(5) BUF

The Eagles are down at 9 in SRS. The biggest differences are the Texans going from 8th in SRS to 19th in the colley matrix and Pittsburgh which jumps from 20th SRS to 10th. San Francisco jumps 9 spots up from 11th in colley to 2nd in SRS. Jets also move nine spots in the opposite direction (22nd SRS and 13th adjusted win%).

The correlation of the ordinal ranks is .81, so there’s still broad agreement between the two rankings but the disagreements are interesting.