NFL

Rodgers 100% lock. Mahomes 99% -- he'd get criticized for only playing 6 seasons as a starter, but 2 SB rings, 2 MVP's, 2 SBMVP's, 5 pro bowls, and 2 All Pros kind of counters any arguments about longevity IMO. Maybe it just prevents him from being 1st ballot. You could make an argument for Wilson and Stafford, but I definitely wouldn't call either one a lock.

Looking at the other veteran QB's, honestly I don't think anyone else makes the cut if they retire today. We've seen the full turnover of generations in the past few years. The great QB generation of 2000-2020 is gone. Brady, Manning, Manning 2, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Ryan, Warner and Favre if you want to include them, are all retired. Rodgers, Wilson, and Stafford are all at the end of their careers. Even guys like Newton, Palmer, Romo, and McNabb, that sort of made up that 2nd tier, are all retired. The top QB's currently are all too young and haven't accomplished anywhere near enough yet, and the best veterans that still have a decent stretch ahead of them are... Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr? No one has really accomplished anything notable.