With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.
Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.
At this point, unless you're truly on a completely different level in terms of both stats and impact, having at least one Super Bowl ring is a requirement in addition to having the stats, accolades, and longevity.
Look at the guys in that general tier you're discussing: Ben, Eli, Ryan, and Rivers, in broad strokes.
Ben has 64,000 yards, 418 TD's, and 2 rings.
Ryan has 63,000 yards, 381 TD's, and no rings, with 1 MVP.
Rivers has 63,000 yards, 421 TD's, and no rings.
Eli has 57,000 yards, 366 TD's, and 2 rings.
Frankly, they're all about the same. The Super bowls are what set them apart, plus Ryan's MVP.
To me, Ben gets in and Eli gets in. Ryan has an edge over Rivers thanks to his MVP, but while I could see all 4 of them getting in eventually, the clear line to draw is SB rings.
Like you said, everyone in the modern game with a long career as a starter will have the volume stats. We really do have to look more firmly at "what did you win and were you inarguably elite?" Eli wasn't "inarguably elite," but he does have the volume stats and the two rings put him over the top. To be perfectly honest, beating the undefeated Pats in 2007 is the kind of storybook win that earns him a spot in the hall even if it was his only ring IMO, and then he beat Brady in the SB again just for shits and giggles.