this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2023
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still a long way to go but they have to be favorites for 2nd place surely
They are far and away a top2 team so far if we go by actual performances, and they're already 8/10 points ahead of Leipzig/Dortmund.
Leverkusen is also overperforming a lot. 4.3 points behind Bayern at xPoints. https://understat.com/league/Bundesliga
Top clubs typically overperform their xG and xGa (and thus their xPts) by quite a bit because they have the best strikers and keepers. So what Leverkusen is doing is actually in line with the quality of their squad, it's Bayern which is actually underperforming due to defensive lapses in key moments. This notion is also confirmed by Bayern's fantastic GD.
According to Understat, Bayern is also overperforming
By 1.42 points, which is perfectly normal. Like I said, top clubs typically overperform their xPoints by a bit. Leverkusen, by contrast, is overperforming by a whooping 7.72 points according to understat.