this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2023
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No idea about his career trajectory but imo we’ll see a very volatile rookie who will put up a high number of touchdowns and a high number of picks and a high number of sacks. If you look at Jameis’ rookie year stats (22 TD/15 INT/27 sacks) I think you can see around those numbers with a slight uptick for Caleb.
Imo the Mahomes comp is both unfair and lazy. Yes, he plays with a backyard style sometimes but as college players and prospects I don’t see a ton of similarities. He’s a pro ready, I think, with really special arm talent who needs a lot of coaching out of bad habits such as bailing from the pocket and obviously acclimating to the speed and processing at the next level.
Trying my best to remove the helmets I actually do see a fair amount of Sam Darnold in his game, in terms of the off platform throws and sloppy footwork. The thing with Darnold, though, is that he was a turnover merchant who never really improved from year to year. A lot of that was blamed on Clay Helton but we saw it at the next level as well. For Caleb, he has improved tremendously from year to year. I think the pendulum is swinging too far in the other direction in terms of people having their knives out for him this year. The overexposure piece. I definitely believe that there will be credible reports of Drake Maye being in the conversation at #1, but ultimately I’m sure it’ll be Caleb. Oddly enough, even though ownership is a bit of nightmare, I think the Bears with a coaching change are his best landing spot. Moore, money, and a few steps forward into their rebuild as opposed to where New England and New York are.