Before we can address the question, we have to address the criteria that is unstated but very obviously true. The order of importance of how MVPs are selected goes by the following:
- Your team has to be winning/playoff bound. (100% of MVPs in the last decade)
- You have to be a QB. (100% of MVPs the last decade)
- You have to be an extremely efficient QB. (90% of QBs were top 5 in EPA or ANY/A the last 10 years)
- You have to have enough bulk stats to back up your efficiency stats. (60% of them have been top 5 in Yards)
- You have to have fan recognition (be a big name/good story).
The only exception to the efficiency rule is Cam Newton in 2015, a year he had 10 rushing TDs.
The current leaders in EPA are:
- Purdy
- Dak
- Mahomes
- Allen
- Tags
The current ANY/A leaders are:
- Purdy
- Tags
- Stroud
- Goff
- Dak
Top 5 in yards per game:
- Stroud
- ~~Cousins~~(injured) Tags
- Goff
- Howell
- Mahomes
(Dak is 6th, fyi)
Based off this, my initial thoughts are Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Tags and Stroud.
Currently the top 5 for Vegas betting are:
- Mahomes
- Hurts
- Tags
- Jackson
- Burrow
This tells me that stupid bets are on Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and the smart money is on Mahomes or Tags. The real value? Purdy, Stroud and Dak at +2000-3000.
Of the 5 that seem most likely to compete for the award based on efficiency/bulk stats, here are their remaining schedules:
- Mahomes: Eagles, Raiders x2, Packers, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Chargers
- Stroud: Cards, Jags, Broncos, Jets, Titans x2, Browns, Colts
- Tags: Raiders, Jets x2, WFT, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills
- Dak: Panthers, WFT x2, Hawks, Bills, Lions
- Purdy: Jags, Bucs, Eagles, Hawks, Cards, Ravens, WFT, Rams
I can only say that Purdy is not going to win MVP
49ers are too stacked + the mid season slump where he "only" had CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle (which is a skill position group most teams would kill for).
This also feels like over fitting data to history - good QBs tend to have good advanced stats, but that's a correlation, not causation, relationship.