this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2023
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Fun fact: or not so fun fact: you decide:
Since the beginning of 2014 season, the Steelers have played the second most one-score games through week 10 of this (95) in the AFC (I’m too lazy to compile the stats for the NFC) only to the chargers (98).
They have the best win percentage, in the AFC, in one-score games at .674. The dolphins are second at .625. The chargers are 12th at .429 over that time span.
Not one single chargers fan will be surprised by this.
Chris Boswell is a hell of a clutch kicker when he wants to be .
As of right now, this Steelers team is eerily similar to that team that started 11-0 a few years ago. Record looks way better than they are and everyone knows that it'll come to an end eventually.
We are so ridiculously, incredibly different.
The 11-0 Steelers team was never going to last for 2 reasons: Our playbook aged poorly and our personnel aged poorly. Very one dimensional, short passing offense done but some old heads. People figured us out, and we also just aged throughout the season.
This year, despite being outgained, we’re like +10 in turnovers with Kenny being the only quarterback with 4 or fewer turnovers. We’re not lights out in the slightest, we are not a premier team. We’re very conservative, run decently, and kill the turnover battle.
This couldn’t be more categorically wrong.
The 11-0 team scored 24 or more points in 10 of the first 11 games. Matt Canada has done that 11 times in 56 games as OC.
The one consistency since 2014 is Mike Tomlin (and Chris Boswell shortly after). HOF coaching and a clutch kicker are why this team is always “worse than their record”. Like at some point you’d think people would stop saying, “The Steelers are so much worse than their record” when they have to do it every season for almost a decade.
So the chargers have 98 one-score games out of 155 games played. That’s 63% and that’s wild
Yeah, point differential is useful in the short term to identify "pretenders" but at some point if a team is constantly winning close games it indicates they are simply good at finding ways to win. The chances of flipping heads 64+ times in 95 flips is 0.0462% or 1 in 2163.
I don't think the Steelers are destined for the Super Bowl, but I do think their close game victories are more than just dumb luck.
I see the Steelers as just good enough to beat teams that are bad, mediocre, or teams the Steelers defensive scheme matches up well against but they are easy to expose if the other team has the right offence. Essential they play super low risk on offence (unless they get behind by 2 TDs) and focus the defence on the red zone and turnovers. It seems like they are getting lucky with turnovers but really they are letting bad/mediocre teams take risks which eventually lead to turnovers and they have monster OLBs that know how to cause turnovers. These turnovers often come at the end of the game because the pressure is at its highest and the other team needs to score at all costs meaning they will be likely take even more risks. On top of all that it is all the more effective when TJ Watt puts the fear of God into the opposing QB.
Steelers coach good. Chargers coach bad