this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2023
1 points (100.0% liked)

NFL

77 readers
1 users here now

A place for NFL news, game highlights and everything that excites you about American Football.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

I was messing around with some adjusted passer ratings last week and a lot of the responses wanted Rushing contributions to be included. So I came up with a new method to do so, combining the adjusted Passer Rating (Passer Rating without Drops, Spikes, Throwaways) with Rushing production. That produced what I call QB CPR.

^(Full disclosure: I am a 49ers fan, but I did not do this to overhype Purdy. He was not atop this list a week ago (Cousins, Goff, & Stroud were 1, 2, & 3, respectively. Ignore my flair and you will still see differences like Goff, Wilson, and Mahomes vs their traditional rankings.))

CPR

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing

Rank Player CPR C-Yd C-TD C-TO C-YPA C-TD% C-TO%
1 Brock Purdy 112.5 2436 17 7 8.8 6.2% 2.5%
2 Dak Prescott 112.4 2550 19 6 7.7 5.7% 1.8%
3 Jared Goff 110.0 2518 16 5 7.3 4.6% 1.4%
4 Tua Tagovailoa 108.4 2642 19 9 8.0 5.7% 2.7%
5 Russell Wilson 107.7 2037 18 7 6.7 6.0% 2.3%
6 Josh Allen 106.4 2846 26 14 7.2 6.5% 3.5%
7 Justin Herbert 105.3 2462 20 5 6.9 5.6% 1.4%
8 C.J. Stroud 105.1 2712 17 6 8.0 5.0% 1.8%
9 Kirk Cousins 104.5 2356 18 9 7.2 5.5% 2.8%
10 Jalen Hurts 103.9 2663 22 11 6.8 5.6% 2.8%
11 Patrick Mahomes 103.3 2700 17 10 7.2 4.5% 2.7%
12 Anthony Richardson 102.3 713 7 2 6.5 6.4% 1.8%
13 Tyrod Taylor 99.0 677 2 0 6.2 1.8% 0.0%
14 Sam Howell 97.8 2957 18 11 6.9 4.2% 2.6%
15 Lamar Jackson 97.2 2658 15 11 7.2 4.1% 3.0%
16 Baker Mayfield 97.1 2277 14 5 6.6 4.1% 1.5%
17 Joe Burrow 95.3 2289 14 7 6.1 3.7% 1.9%
18 Justin Fields 93.7 1438 12 8 6.9 5.7% 3.8%
19 Derek Carr 93.0 2264 10 6 6.4 2.8% 1.7%
20 Matthew Stafford 91.7 2138 8 7 7.3 2.7% 2.4%
21 Geno Smith 91.5 2237 11 9 6.9 3.4% 2.8%
22 Trevor Lawrence 88.4 2343 9 10 6.8 2.6% 2.9%
23 Jordan Love 87.9 2191 16 10 6.6 4.8% 3.0%
24 Deshaun Watson 87.3 1257 8 6 6.4 4.1% 3.0%
25 Gardner Minshew II 86.1 1765 10 10 6.5 3.7% 3.7%
26 Joshua Dobbs 86.0 2363 16 11 6.0 4.1% 2.8%
27 Kenny Pickett 85.9 1653 7 4 5.8 2.5% 1.4%
28 Desmond Ridder 84.8 1890 10 12 6.8 3.6% 4.3%
29 Will Levis 84.2 712 4 2 6.2 3.5% 1.7%
30 Bryce Young 83.3 1695 8 9 5.5 2.6% 2.9%
31 Mac Jones 81.7 2127 10 12 6.1 2.9% 3.4%
32 Jimmy Garoppolo 80.8 1244 7 9 6.6 3.7% 4.8%
33 Ryan Tannehill 80.4 1168 3 6 6.9 1.8% 3.5%
34 Daniel Jones 77.9 1115 3 7 5.6 1.5% 3.5%
35 Tyson Bagent 76.7 968 5 8 5.8 3.0% 4.8%
36 Zach Wilson 76.3 2047 5 11 6.1 1.5% 3.3%
37 Aidan O'Connell 74.5 681 3 5 6.2 2.8% 4.6%
38 P.J. Walker 52.3 649 1 6 5.9 0.9% 5.5%

GUIDE:

  • CPR = Adjusted Passer Rating + Rushing Production
    • Adjusted Passer Rating = Passer Rating after eliminating Drops, Throwaways, & Spikes
    • Combined with Rushing Yds, TDs, & Fumbles Lost
  • C-Yd = Combined Yards (Rushing + Passing)
  • C-TD = Combined TDs (Rushing + Passing)
  • C-TO = Combined Turnovers (Rushing + Passing)
  • C-YPA = Combined Yards Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
  • C-TD% = Combined TD% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)
  • C-TO% = Combined Turnover% Per Attempt (Rushing + Passing)

CPR2

While doing all this I was looking for another metric to account for players that were doing the majority of the work. That is to say, not benefiting strictly of YAC. So I came up with another metric for this. CPR2 takes the original CPR metric and strips the YAC.

  • As an example, it is much harder to earn a perfect rating this way.
    • Keenan Allen is 1/1 for a 49 yd TD. Under both standard and my CPR Rating that would be a 158.3 Rating. However, with CPR2 that becomes a 142.2 Rating. In this rating, perfect means perfect. K.Allen would have had to throw 1/1 for 49 Air Yards on a TD.

Here you will also see the biggest boosts from the high-volume rushers like Hurts and Lamar.

Adjusted Rating for Combined Passing & Rushing, further adjusted away from YAC

Rank Player CPR2 AYPC YAC/Cmp CRAY% CYAC% Adj OnTrg%
1 Dak Prescott 130.7 6.4 5.0 58.1% 41.9% 79.5%
2 Jalen Hurts 129.2 6.4 4.8 62.2% 37.8% 84.4%
3 Brock Purdy 127.0 7.4 6.2 56.4% 43.6% 69.4%
4 Tyrod Taylor 125.8 5.8 4.3 63.5% 36.5% 81.8%
5 Josh Allen 125.7 5.8 4.7 59.1% 40.9% 85.0%
6 C.J. Stroud 122.8 7.6 5.8 58.4% 41.6% 65.4%
7 Lamar Jackson 121.6 6.1 5.1 62.5% 37.5% 72.2%
8 Kirk Cousins 121.1 6.2 4.6 57.9% 42.1% 86.8%
9 Anthony Richardson 119.4 5.6 5.9 58.3% 41.7% 80.0%
10 Jared Goff 118.1 6.0 5.2 53.7% 46.3% 78.4%
11 Russell Wilson 117.1 4.9 5.2 54.3% 45.7% 81.2%
12 Tua Tagovailoa 115.0 6.4 5.8 53.0% 47.0% 83.2%
13 Joshua Dobbs 111.2 5.5 4.0 64.7% 35.3% 64.0%
14 Matthew Stafford 111.2 7.4 5.1 60.6% 39.4% 78.5%
15 Justin Herbert 110.1 5.4 5.4 52.3% 47.7% 70.6%
16 Justin Fields 108.9 6.0 6.0 58.1% 41.9% 76.7%
17 Sam Howell 108.2 5.5 5.0 55.3% 44.7% 71.0%
18 Baker Mayfield 107.5 5.7 5.2 55.4% 44.6% 71.2%
19 Deshaun Watson 105.6 5.9 4.7 60.5% 39.5% 61.1%
20 Desmond Ridder 104.7 6.3 4.5 61.7% 38.3% 76.8%
21 Jordan Love 103.5 6.3 5.1 58.9% 41.1% 67.7%
22 Trevor Lawrence 101.2 5.5 5.0 57.2% 42.8% 75.4%
23 Jimmy Garoppolo 100.8 6.7 4.3 62.4% 37.6% 73.6%
24 Derek Carr 99.5 5.4 4.8 53.5% 46.5% 73.7%
25 Geno Smith 99.3 5.9 5.2 54.2% 45.8% 61.5%
26 Patrick Mahomes 98.7 4.5 6.2 47.8% 52.2% 88.0%
27 Ryan Tannehill 94.7 6.6 4.9 58.9% 41.1% 75.7%
28 Daniel Jones 94.3 4.3 4.1 60.5% 39.5% 81.6%
29 Gardner Minshew II 91.9 5.5 5.0 53.4% 46.6% 67.9%
30 Bryce Young 91.3 4.4 4.2 54.8% 45.2% 78.4%
31 Joe Burrow 86.6 4.1 5.4 45.4% 54.6% 70.5%
32 Will Levis 85.6 5.8 5.8 50.8% 49.2% 42.0%
33 Zach Wilson 84.9 5.2 5.0 55.7% 44.3% 69.7%
34 Kenny Pickett 84.0 5.0 5.5 48.9% 51.1% 66.7%
35 Mac Jones 77.3 4.3 5.3 47.3% 52.7% 72.8%
36 Tyson Bagent 74.6 3.9 5.3 48.7% 51.3% 80.3%
37 Aidan O'Connell 67.8 4.6 5.6 45.5% 54.5% 53.5%
38 P.J. Walker 44.7 5.1 7.8 42.7% 57.3% 60.7%

Guide:

  • CPR2 = Takes CPR and adjusts it toward the % of a player's total yards are not from YAC.
    • This is designed to give a more accurate picture of what a QB is doing (as both a runner & passer) separate from the receiver.
  • AYPC = Air Yards Per Completion
  • YAC/Cmp = Yards After Catch, per Completion
  • CRAY = % of Yards from Combined Rushing and Air Yards
  • Adj OnTrg% = % of Passes on Target, per Adjusted Attempt (no drops, spikes, throwaways)
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] lattjeful@alien.top 1 points 1 year ago

This is a cool way of looking at things. It's not perfect, but nothing is. Nice job OP.

CPR2 says Jalen Hurts is elite, so that's my favorite one.