this post was submitted on 13 May 2026
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Both heavy and light oil will still be needed for other processes and products that can't be replaced/way more difficult to replace than fuels. But decoupling oil from energy and transportation will have a huge impact on the market and be better for everyone in general.
Hopefully the quantities will be small enough to make the USA irrelevant for a century, until they catch up again.
It won't just make the USA irrelevant in the oil domain: it'll impact the entirety of the OPEC group who'll have to massively scale back production to keep the price high enough to sustain their economies.
The petro-dollar will be replaced with the electro-dollar (that is if the US dollar remains the world currency). So a different group of rare earth rich countries will emerge that'll become more relevant than OPEC in the energy domain but not quite to the same extent as countries that are both gifted with geography to make them major energy exporters and have neighbouring countries/super-grid connections/renewable storage export capabilities will emerge as big players as well.
Most countries can produce some oil, and if there's no demand it doesn't matter what price they try to sell it at when no one buys it.
And those who can't produce oil, will find alternatives. Exactly what is happening right now.
If countries become self-sufficient through green energy, which is 100% achievable, there won't be any electro or petro dollars, making the USA irrelevant. Which is my hope.
Google says 25% of the worlds oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but it also says 55% off the worlds oil is used for transportation.
We should be able to fairly quickly (ie. Decade) cut oil by double what is impacted in trumps war