NBA - Main

12 readers

2 users here now

Game analysis, highlights and everything else that is happening in the NBA.

founded 11 months ago

MODERATORS

communick@nba.space

Jaylen Brown (owed $320M through 2029) is currently 8th on the team in BPM. (alien.top)

submitted 10 months ago by gosuruss@alien.top to c/nba@nba.space

22 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Player	BPM	TS%
Porzingis	7.1	69.5%
Hauser	5.9	72.4%
Tatum	5.0	62.0%
White	4.2	63.2%
Kornet	4.1	79.9%
Holiday	2.5	52.9%
Brown	0.7	56.0%

Death, Taxes, Jaylen Brown's advanced stats being terrible.

One dimensional, mediocre efficiency scorers just aren't that valuable. You'd have to argue that he's far more valuable than his box score stats suggest, but there you have an even bigger problem. Long term RAPM data suggests he's maybe the 100th best player in the league. These are two completely independent metrics agreeing here. You have the boxscore metric which is saying he's not that valuable, and you have the pure plus minus metric also saying he's not that valuable.

Did Boston make a huge mistake signing him to a $300M deal?

Prior ranks on the team in BPM

2023: 6th

2022: 7th

2021: 3rd

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments

[–] TheCodeSamurai@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

It's important to remember what plus-minus stats actually measure. Box score versions measure your, well, box score, which is a lot more about shooting luck at this point in the season than anything else. Clearly Tatum is the 3rd best player on the team, right?

RAPM or EPM measure how good you are on your specific team in the mostly regular season minutes they play with and without you. Brown is not on a team that maximizes his potential, and especially as the Celtics have added more and more scoring his tools aren't necessarily being put to amazing use in the regular season. You don't need to take midrange shots if your offense is consistently getting great looks elsewhere on the floor. Players like Hauser and White can take better advantage of the advantages the Celtics get playing against teams that can't really stop them. You see the same thing for 3-and-D players on other really good teams: Mikal Bridges was an analytics darling for the Suns playoff runs.

How much does not being as efficiently dominant when your team has a +10 net rating as other players matter? It doesn't. It's a good thing to have players with underutilized talents in the regular season. I'm sure the Nuggets would love to have Jokic's numbers get worse, if it means that their non-Jokic lineups are better. Everyone on the Celtics is sacrificing their own stats right now, JB perhaps more than anyone, to win games and prepare for the playoffs.

In the playoffs, as defenses lock in and scoring gets tougher, you won't be able to feed the bigs dunks or feed the shooters with a ton of open looks. Who's gonna take advantage of the spacing and be able to score against the elite defenders in the postseason? IDK, maybe the guy who was the best player in the Finals for the Celtics. The guy who regularly plays against the opposing teams' best or second-best defender. The guy who can score from anywhere and has the physical tools to lock in on defense.