Big Ben was never top 5 in MVP voting in the league. I know the sentiment is that he’ll get in, especially with his two SBs, but never being top 5 in his prime is almost the definition of HoVG
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I don’t think Ben, Ryan, or Rivers make it in. Brees only makes it in because his trailblazing the path to 80,000 yards being so much higher than the next person (excluding Brady). Brees makes it in even without the Super Bowl win because his contribution to NFL history with the 80k yards.
Two Super Bowl wins isn’t enough to get you in anymore because Eli is going to miss with the two biggest wins in Super Bowl history so Ben is out. Ryan and Rivers have zero Super Bowl wins, and did not attain any significant regular season or post season records or hit any huge QB milestones or really advance the game at their position so they are also out.
Being completely realistic, Rodgers is the only other guy I see going to HOF because he has 4 MVPs and his TD:INT ratio is so damned insane that he really impacted what we consider a top QB should be like. His ratio is above 4.5 after 18 seasons, the next highest is Mahomes at 3.67 who only has 7 years. The next two seasoned QBs are Russell Wilson with 3.18 with 150 less TDs then Tom Brady at 3.06.
Mahomes is on the right track, but he needs to keep playing for at least another decade at the same level he’s been playing at with the same level of success to really get into the conversation seriously.
Ben will make it. Ryan and rivers shouldnt. Eli manning will make it bc he has 2 rings even though he was never the best QB in his division.
Ben will get in, and should. Rivers might. Ryan, might not. Ryan had his one year that was better than any year Ben and Phil had, but I don’t think he was a better QB than either of them for their careers.
HOF is about sustained success over long periods of time imo.
Big Ben checks that box. Matt Ryan had a very solid chunk of time where he was successful, but never got over the SB hump and never regained form after that.
Philip Rivers is probably not getting in due to all the average level teams he played on.
Where will the Pro Football Hall of Fame draw the line with QBs?
When the hall stops making money, people will pay to see eli inducted (or the very least travel to watch it)
The real question is how many people will drive 10 hours for it
Big Ben will get in, he has two Super Bowls and a lot of passing stats that you wouldn't expect and he won a lot in his career outside of those two SB runs including a SB loss in 2010.
Eli Manning, Matty Ice, and Rivers are the true edge cases. Out of the three I think Eli Manning gets it and the other two are left out. Eli has the two SB runs but also has beaten Brady twice in the SB. I think Eli also being spectacular in those runs also adds to why voters will let him in despite good but not great regular season stats and records.
Matty Ice and Rivers have the regular season stats but never were consistent playoff performers. I think given how inflated QB stats are these guys are left out on the edge.
the only way a guy gets in with 0 Super Bowls is if the break passing records and have Multiple MVPs. Ryan and rivers are HoVG, not HOF.
Cam Newton is not a HoF QB.
Big Ben isnt close. Hes a two time Superbowl champ who had great numbers and was an excelling QB.
At this point, unless you're truly on a completely different level in terms of both stats and impact, having at least one Super Bowl ring is a requirement in addition to having the stats, accolades, and longevity.
Look at the guys in that general tier you're discussing: Ben, Eli, Ryan, and Rivers, in broad strokes.
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Ben has 64,000 yards, 418 TD's, and 2 rings.
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Ryan has 63,000 yards, 381 TD's, and no rings, with 1 MVP.
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Rivers has 63,000 yards, 421 TD's, and no rings.
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Eli has 57,000 yards, 366 TD's, and 2 rings.
Frankly, they're all about the same. The Super bowls are what set them apart, plus Ryan's MVP.
To me, Ben gets in and Eli gets in. Ryan has an edge over Rivers thanks to his MVP, but while I could see all 4 of them getting in eventually, the clear line to draw is SB rings.
Like you said, everyone in the modern game with a long career as a starter will have the volume stats. We really do have to look more firmly at "what did you win and were you inarguably elite?" Eli wasn't "inarguably elite," but he does have the volume stats and the two rings put him over the top. To be perfectly honest, beating the undefeated Pats in 2007 is the kind of storybook win that earns him a spot in the hall even if it was his only ring IMO, and then he beat Brady in the SB again just for shits and giggles.
Ben is in. I don’t agree with this, but Rivers will get in, too. Same with Eli. Not sure Ryan makes it.
Eli manning is a hall of famer. Ya I said it
Shocking Eli wasn’t mentioned but since people are already bashing him while simultaneously preaching for Ryan to be HOF then I need to back my guy up here lmao:
2x SB mvp (1 of 5 players to do this)
3rd all time in consecutive starts (over 13 seasons without missing a start!!)
11th all time in wins
7th most passing yards all time
7th most td passes all time
10th most game winning drives all time
2nd all time in road playoff wins
most passing yards in a single postseason (1,219 in 2011)
but sure… it’s just because he’s a manning
Ben should be first ballot no question.
Does the quarterback have two Super Bowl rings? Automatic in eventually. Maybe not first ballot Eli but he’s the bottom of the line. Rank anyone else against that threshold.
Anyone one with one or less rings has to wait till all the two ringers waiting are in.
Sorry Ryan, Rivers, Brees, and Rodgers.
I’m gonna assume you omitted Flacco because he isn’t technically retired yet #elite
I think Ben is the only one to get in. Others needed the Super Bowl to get in. Just my thoughts.
Funny that we are having this conversation without talking about Tony Romo, a guy who was even better than Ben or Eli but didn't have the good fortune to play on teams as good as they had
I’ll be honest, are Brees and Rodgers even hall of famers? I feel as playing careers get longer, longevity isn’t as important. Are they in the same class as Brady, Peyton Manning, and even Maholmes?
Ryan and Rivers are not getting in. I think it should be pretty clear which QBs from the past couple of decades get in with the exception of Eli Manning. There’s an argument for and against him, everyone else, though, not really.
It’s a good question for sure especially for Ryan and Rivers. I think Ben gets in pretty easily because of the Super Bowls but I definitely see your point. Now, considering Super Bowls what about Eli? His career stats are not inline with a HOFer but he has those damn Super Bowls, over Brady no less. I’m not saying he should get in but it’s interesting to ponder.
What about Eli? Is he a shoo-in?
As much as I hate him I think the two time rapist should make it because he has 2 SBs and a damn good career.
I’m not sure Ryan or Rivers should be in. Not with no SBs. I just don’t think their careers are good enough
Edit: also I do think Eli should get in
A known rapist should not be inducted, regardless of stats or accomplishments. Come the fuck on NFL, please stop rewarding sexual predators.
If Kurt Cousins had finished this season, and say played 3 more at his career pace (4,000 yards, 28 tds), I think that's when the bar would be moved up
Based on total numbers, he'd be a Hall of Fame borderline guy. But he absolutely never passed the eye test.
So, get ahead of it. To me, Matt Ryan is the first guy out - an MVP, a conference title, some bulk stats, but doesn't scream Hall of Fame to me.
I think all 3 make it, but Ryan is clearly the worst of the 3. Eli Manning should be the line. Average starting QB who happened to win 2 SB. He's on Joe flacco level. If he makes it, I get it. It would be more for his resume than his play.
None of those three get in. They were fine quarterbacks but they were never considered “elite” during their careers. The Hall of Fame should be reserved for the best-of-the-best - and these three quarterbacks were never that. I’d consider Brees to be left out also.
Ben goes in, he has a good combo of durability, efficiency, volume, regular season wins and playoff success, I think he has a much, much better case than Eli, Rivers and Ryan, even if the individual accolades fall short of the players generally included in the Hall at his position. The thing is we can't overestimate the counting stats for the Matt Ryan/Phillip Rivers of the world because in 15 years they'll be what, 14th and 16th in the all time passing yards leaderboards and then what? They were among the first wave to play their whole careers under the post-2004 rule change that made passing explode (and then it exploded again post 2007 or so), of course they'll rank highly in the volume categories. But then there's a good chance they'll be surpassed by guys like Stafford, Goff... I love that the football Hall of Fame is very selective. Don't want to turn it into the NBA, where it's completely watered down.
I can't remember where I heard it, but I really like the saying "if you can't tell the story of the NFL without talking about that player, they deserve to be in the HoF.
Going with that, I think Big Ben makes it (multiple Super Bowl champ, kinda broke the mold as a QB who not only could take a hit, but also liked giving them out when he ran).
I think if you win multiple Super Bowls as a QB, you should get in
Love Rivers, but throw it all away if he gets in there. QBs with multiple rings who are actually good always get in.
Matty Ice is interesting but still hall of very good for me. A single MVP and no rings isn't enough IMO.
I'd buy it if he was unquestioned top 5 QB every year, but he never was. He was consistently in the top 5-10 range outside of the MVP year.
If you are putting Brees in, Ben gets it too.
Matt Ryan or Rivers getting in would be a complete mockery
Re Philip Rivers: I see absolutely no argument for him making the HoF. A guy who never won a super bowl and was never once in his career a top 3 QB in the league.
So he wasn't the best individual player at his position, and he never enjoyed significant team success...what exactly makes him a hall of famer?
Big Ben is the only 1 of those 3 I'd put in
I would legitimately put Desean Jackson into the HoF before Philip Rivers. Sure he was niche, but he was one of the best deep threats in league history (I say top 3 but I think top 5 is undisputed). NFL record for most career 60+ yard TDs and tied for most 80+. Rivers had solid teams, played at the most important position, and has… nothing. HE DOSNT EVEN HAVE AN ALL-PRO. Man should never get in. Very good, not worthy of Hall of Fame
I genuinely believe that in order to make it into the HoF, the NFL story couldn’t be told without you. I think the 2004 QB class (Eli, Ben, Phil) all should make it because they have each been elite and one of the greatest QB classes of all time. They should all make it, fuck it
They’ll draw it at 1: Good Stats and either 2: multiple super bowls OR 2: An MVP
Matt gets in, Ben gets in, Rivers and Eli don’t.
Ben gets in because he has 2 rings. Although his defense is what got those rings. Matt probably not because no SB. Rivers could, but with no rings it hurts. McNabb=No. Romo= No.
Flacco = No