this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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I don't think teams tank as much they are claimed to do so, probably because it is not as beneficial of a strategy as one might think.

Let me first define what I mean by "tanking." Tanking in this context means deliberately losing on purpose to get the best possible draft pick. I do NOT consider tanking to be the same thing as a rebuild, where you do not expect to get good enough value for the salary, and so you trade away assets or simply let them walk in order to bring in younger and cheaper talent to develop. In doing so, you accept poorer performance along the way until you can develop that talent. When I ask about tanking I'm asking if teams not only do that, but also lose on purpose to improve their draft position.

First, research has shown that "top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research." The basic reason is that there is a salary cap. No one can outspend any one else, and so you have to extract as much value for a fixed amount of money as possible. Top draft picks are better players than later picks, but they also command much higher salaries that tend to overcompensate them relative to others. The best value performance combo actually peaks in the LATE first round, and all picks after the first overall are on average better value until the early third round.

https://d3i71xaburhd42.cloudfront.net/61bbf4dd4aeb2e915f631832dc890f92a9a0c12c/58-FigureIV-1.png

source: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1657

This has been dubbed "the loser's curse" because bad teams tend to pick good players but pay them too much, they cannot pay sufficient talent elsewhere on the field, and the team continues to perform poorly. And when you remove QBs from the calculation, this phenomenon becomes even more pronounced, because QBs are such high value and tend to be more reliable performers.

https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/moo.png

source: https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/

So it's better to just be mediocre or even good but not great. With the exception of an elite QB propsect, losing on purpose to go as high as possible in the draft is clearly a bad strategy because you are probably going to overpay. Even if there is an elite QB, the hype around that prospect could improve that player's negotiating position for him to demand more salary from you, increasing the risk of overpay.

Second, there is a cost to tanking. We as fans are only looking at the team as a whole. It may help the team to get a (nominally) better draft position by losing. But a team is composed of individual professional players and coaches, all of whom hope to continued to be employed as such. Losing winnable games certainly does not aid them in this pursuit. Even if losing on purpose was a good strategy, is it actually possible to get players to follow it, since it requires them to play worse deliberately, or frustrate the efforts of those who still play well? And how do you develop and maintain a winning culture and attitude while losing on purpose? Tanking is likely to cause you to alienate and waste the development of current talent, and fail to attract better talent from elsewhere in the league - all in favor of gaining an uncertain and likely to be overpaid draft pick.

Finally, I'm aware of only one situation in which someone inside an organization explicitly claimed that there was an aim to lose on purpose - Brian Flores's lawsuit, in which he claimed the Dolphins owner offered to pay him to lose. I don't know if these allegations were ever proven, but if true they are still illustrative - Brian Flores was so insulted by this offer he started a lawsuit (among other reasons). Deliberately losing is anathema to every single person who has poured a lifetime of blood, sweat, and tears into being a professional coach or player. I don't think enough players or coaches would accept it to begin with, simply because they are too disgusted by the idea.

In conclusion, I think the popular beliefs that this or that team are tanking derives from the disbelief that a team can really be as bad as it is. The truth is it's very difficult to win professional football games, so hard that some pros look like they are doing it on purpose. Especially because we love to be armchair QBs, HCs, and GMs, who think we know what a team should do, when in fact the vast majority of fans simply have no idea what they are talking about. And for fans of a specific bad team, it is copium. It makes you feel better to think your team has a strategy, when in fact they just suck this year, and may suck for the foreseeable future.

TL;DR - Although teams of course do rebuild, I don't think teams really tank, with perhaps rare exception of which I am not aware. It's questionable whether tanking actually works, and I don't think it's likely you'll get the players and coaches to actually sign on for a tanking campaign.

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[–] ILoveYourWeed@alien.top 2 points 10 months ago

Tanking isn't just a viable strategy, it's mandatory for every encounter, but you'll need good healers and DPS as well.

[–] EpiphoneHumbucker4@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

deliberately losing on purpose

Sorry. I read this whole thing, and this bit of it is the only part I can’t think about lol

[–] kamspy@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Look at the results of not tanking: Steelers. Patriots (before this season), Titans etc. You get stuck in this loop of 16th overall draft picks and have a really hard time picking up new A1 talent.

[–] chuckerhuck@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

You can never tank, purposefully lose games, and be a successful winning squad

The nature of realty is you become what you do

Tanking breeds a loser

[–] wehaddababyeetsaboy@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I think there's a time and a place for it. Not every bad team should tank. But sometimes it's unavoidably the best thing to do. But It's important to keep in mind that just because you draft in the top 5 does not mean he's bustproof. Fans get caught up in the draft like it's not a crapshoot. But it's a complete crapshoot.

[–] Alarming-Series6627@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

No. There is no guarantee that the picks you draft will be the all stars you hope or valuable trades.

Tanking a team hurts the culture, and that's so hard to build/rebuild.

[–] FloodIV@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

And when you remove QBs from the calculation, this phenomenon becomes even more pronounced, because QBs are such high value and tend to be more reliable performers.

This is where you go wrong imo. The point of tanking is to get a QB, because having an elite QB immediately turns a team into a Super Bowl contender. And you can only get an elite QB through the draft. It would be wrong to tank for any other position, because no other position will affect a teams success the way a QB will.

[–] johnq11@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

For how bad it is for the sport and how little it seems to work, it’s shocking how much NFL fans love the idea of it.

[–] mattcojo2@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I’d say generally no.

It doesn’t really matter a whole lot where you draft but rather who you draft. Being the #1 or even a top 5 pick doesn’t guarantee you’re going to get the best player. The raiders and browns for many years picked high and almost always had bad picks.

Even if you make a good pick once, you’ve gotta draft well to build a team around a great player. And bad teams fail at that.

[–] ill_try_my_best@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

The Bengals benched Andy Dalton on his birthday to tank to draft Burrow. I'd say it worked out lol

[–] jimmifli@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Non QB top picks are definitely over valued. But the adjustments for QB picks are pretty interesting.

[–] whistlepig4life@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Go look back and see how many teams that had a top 3 pick managed to turn their franchise completely around based on that one pick.

Most end up back in the top 5 or 10 again and it takes a few drafts to turn it around.

Tanking is not a cure for a bad franchise.

[–] GLaD0S11@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

You'll never convince me the Jaguars didn't tank in 2019 to get Trevor and you'll certainly never convince me we would be a better team today if we had gone like 5-11 that year and picked 4th.

Frank Gore should be enshrined in our stadium next to Boselli, Jimmy Smith and Fred Taylor for him winning that game for the Jets against the Rams that year.

[–] Pismiire@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Ask Popovich

[–] YiMyonSin@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

On any given snap, there are over 20 players that can influence what happens. The thing you need to worry about is that pretty much every NFL team will have good or at least serviceable players, so holes are opening constantly. Losing is literal poison to players and coaches, so you always have the confused hydra of a front office and coaching staff wanting opposite things. Losers also tend to pay higher prices for free agents, as seen with Jacksonville nearly two years ago with Christian Kirk. The most important aspect is to have a good coach and GM to craft the roster.

[–] RobynStellarxx@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I think it’s a good plan if you want to get a generational QB, and don’t really have a team to go on a SB run. However, in practice, it’s hard to tank because it’s not like any of the players on said team want to lose. Them not winning games likely decreases their salary value and everything.

[–] joey_sandwich277@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Let me first define what I mean by "tanking." Tanking in this context means deliberately losing on purpose to get the best possible draft pick. I do NOT consider tanking to be the same thing as a rebuild, where you do not expect to get good enough value for the salary, and so you trade away assets or simply let them walk in order to bring in younger and cheaper talent to develop. In doing so, you accept poorer performance along the way until you can develop that talent. When I ask about tanking I'm asking if teams not only do that, but also lose on purpose to improve their draft position.

There should be no debate that nobody in the NFL tanks like this. The only sport this somewhat happens in is the NBA. I usually give fans the benefit of the doubt that when they say "tanking" they mean "starting a rebuild."

[–] azure275@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

There are a bunch of issues with tanking in the NFL

  1. One player can't make a difference by himself nearly as much. I don't think anyone thinks Stroud would be good on the Jets right now and he seems really good. In the NBA a #1 pick can instantly make you a playoff team.
  2. NFL picks are way more likely to flame out. You can use hindsight on the Jets picking Zach Wilson, but basically every viable pick for that spot looks terrible now.
  3. Much fewer games means that any single win can ruin your tank (see: Trevor Lawrence and the Jets). In the NBA you can win 10-15 games and your tank is fine.
[–] IsGoIdMoney@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

You're saying to mostly ignore tanking for QBs, but that's literally the only position I've ever heard of people suspecting tanking for. No one tanks for a really good tight end.

[–] farson135@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Fans and media types talk about tanking. Teams don't.

At the end of the day, the players and coaches are professionals who are playing their job, and many of them have pride in their work.

The closest I have seen to a proper tanking are the Colts, who vehemently deny doing it, and the Browns who after their multi-year long "tanking" managed to add a bunch of near 50/50 seasons, and a, singular, winning season. That's not a winning strategy. It can work, but it is too dependent on luck to really even be considered a strategy.

Teams will throw in the towel for the last couple of games, and start playing down-roster players to see what they have. However, those players are still playing, and the teams are not upset if they win. If they aren't doing that for a couple of meaningless games at the end of the season then they certainly aren't doing it for a full season, or multiple seasons.

Well, unless you are a genius like Andy Reid who managed the incredible feat of "tanking" while going to the playoffs multiple years in a row. Or the Eagles who treated their QBs as disposable, and just threw them away before they cost too much. .... I hope it doesn't need to be said but to be sure, this last paragraph is me making fun of certain people.

[–] ImpossibleJoke7456@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

No team claims to tank. Your whole idea isn’t based on a real argument.

[–] o4b@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

According to wikipedia:

"Tanking in sports refers to the practice of intentionally fielding non-competitive teams to take advantage of league rules that benefit losing teams"

I think you are riding a fine line with tanking versus rebuilding. I think you can tank while not asking coaches to lose games; simply give them players that they will not be able to win with.

[–] chicknsnadwich@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

The problem with tanking as I see it is talent can only get you so far if you don’t have the right management in place to help use it. Or the right idea on what talent is best for the team. Which is why some teams will spend years in purgatory while others will never spend more than 1 or 2 years being bad

[–] BlurryGraph3810@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Tanking results in a losing culture at the franchise, and that can result in generational failure.

[–] Ok_Barracuda_1161@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I pretty much agree with what you're saying, and also am very doubtful that anyone ever really loses on purpose especially over a prolonged time (i.e. I could see it maybe happening week 17/18 but not half a season)

But you also can't remove QBs from the conversation like you do in your analysis. I can't think of any team that was accused of tanking who wasn't looking for a QB

[–] IrvinStabbedMe@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

NFL draft is so different from likenthe NBA. Football has so many positions and players on a roster that having pick 5 is still great. Lot of premium talent at multiple positions to look at. The #1 overall is only tank worthy in the NFL when you have that "guaranteed" generational QB.

[–] Naughty--Insomniac@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Sure it just takes 30 years to pay off. See Detroit.

[–] Popular_Bite9246@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

The “Suck for Luck” Colts were an effective single year tank.

[–] DruTangClan@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

I have always sort of thought this and not surprised to see some of that research.

First, regardless of draft position you need to be able to scout well and evaluate talent well. Generally, the higher pick you get the better chance you have on hitting on a player, but it’s not a lock, and if a team is really bad, that could partially be due to poor scouting/talent evaluation so unless you fix that the problems may continue.

Second, even teams with good scouting departments get picks that turn out to be busts, or at least don’t turn out to be a franchise-changing force. Basically there’s no guarantee that even a person widely agreed upon as a good prospect will pan out that way.

Third, even if the selected player IS really good, their career could be derailed by injuries or off the field issues. Another layer of uncertainty.

Fourth, I kind of stated before but unless the team around the person is good, it’s unlikely that the team will suddenly become playoff contenders. The exception would probably be if you hit on a HOF calibur QB that can basically carry a team, but even then there typical has to be some level of support. But like for example the Texans once used a first overall pick on Mario Williams. Great player, but didn’t really turn the franchise around. A great QB is more likely to do this, but again not a lock.

[–] aspbergerinparadise@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Tanking doesn't really happen.

The coaches jobs are on the line. The players are trying to get contracts that are based on their performances. Neither of those groups are going to just roll over and lose to get a better draft pick for their team if it means they could lose their job or millions of dollars.

It just doesn't happen like that.

[–] Kenny_Heisman@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

based on your definitions, "tanking" is not a thing. however what you call "rebuilding" is essentially the same thing, in that you're trading away good players and therefore losing more games and getting higher draft picks. that strategy can definitely work

[–] Carolina_Bobcats@alien.top 1 points 10 months ago

Yes just look at Carolina… oh wait