NFL

The last time someone won MVP when their team didn't even win their division was 2012 Adrian Peterson when he ran for 2100 yards. Herbert doesn't have a chance unless he throws 30 TDs his last 8 games.

There hasn't been an MVP in the last 20+ years that didn't win 11 games, and that's when they only played 16.

Just be glad theyre not forcing Kenny Pickett stats on us

Superstitious idiot go outside

What do you mean? He’s literally guaranteed to be the best QB this year. I’d even go as far as to say there’s absolutely nothing that can stop CJ Stroud from being the best QB of all time.

Anderson is creating pressures and opportunities for others to get sacks. It’s not showing up on the stat sheet, but he it schemed against, double/triple teamed all the time. That’s partially because the Texans don’t really have anybody else on the D-line that opposing coordinators would have to focus on. We notice him in games usually when he throws the right tackle into the QB’s lap.

Rookie D-ends usually make a big step in year 2, and the Texans should get even more help on the line wether through the draft or free agency, and you should hear more from him on sport center (or wherever) then.

Everyone is happy we have him, but we will see if he is fully worth what we gave up to go get him, but so far so good. On that note, with news today that Deshaun is having season ending surgery, it’s looking more and more like the Browns Rd1 (Texans still have) will be lower than the Texan’s (the one they traded).

No

These aren't the metrics MVP is given out on. Wins, traditional efficiency stats, and volume. Wins, unfortunately for Stroud, are a huge part of the equation.

I really don't think that's completely true. Here's the last ten MVPs.

1. Jackson's significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage. Should be considered 1st outright in wins, since he sat out an easy victory with the #1 seed locked up.

2. Mahomes was a narrow second to Brees in both EPA and rating, however Brees missed a game and had much lower volume (>5000 yards vs <4000 yards).

3. Newton's significant rushing value is not accounted for in passer rating or yardage.

All of these ranks are based on players who started at least 9 games. The 2013 cutoff gave me a round decade and avoided having to deal with RB-as-MVP in the form of Peterson '12. Before 2012 I don't have EPA handy.

It's pretty clear at a glance that volume isn't actually that big a deal to voters.

"Advanced" and "Traditional" efficiency stats tend toward agreement, but when they disagree the "Advanced" EPA is a better predictor of the MVP. To be fair to "traditional" efficiency, Manning '13, Jackson '19, and Mahomes '22 were behind only players who missed significant time. The two significant disagreements are:

• 2014: Rating prefers Romo to Rodgers.
• 2017: Rating prefers either Alex Smith or Brees to Brady.

The case against wins is made most strongly by Ryan winning over four players with at least as many wins and a better record (Brady, Dak, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr) in '16. Mahomes '18 and Rodgers '20 both failed to lead the league in wins but did secure the #1 seed in their conference. The case for wins is made best by Newton '15; I suspect the rather odd Cam Newton MVP award had more to do with voters over-valuing his rushing ability than Carolina's 15-1 record, but I could easily be wrong.

Overall, being really good at quarterbacking is the best way to win MVP. It's also the best way to win lots of games and get high ranks in both old and new efficiency stats, so it's hard to say definitively which of those the voters are actually pinging on; those three measures usually agree. My personal guess is that EPA is the best proxy for what they are thinking; if Stroud finishes up at the top of the efficiency boards but someone else, say Mahomes, has four or so more wins the MVP race might give us a very interesting data point this year.

I mean, it's not happening cause he's on pace for 28tds and his teams unlikely to win more than 10 games or their division and are currently the 7th seed.

Unless they go 7-1 and he plays far better than he already has it's not happening. Especially if one of Mahomes/Hurts/Goff/Purdy get their team to 14-15 wins

5 Young mans and 3 good meals.

Or in the DVDA metric?

Brock is 1st. 46.6% DVOA so about 10%

Which is ridiculous and possibly shouldn't be sustainable....except that we are 9 games in. There will be downvotes...but a 10% DVOA gap isn't close at and canmot be explained simply by weapons.