ITT: People who have no idea that statistical noise can exist and that looking at a sample of 4 years to compare this season to is something that should get you laughed at by anybody who has half of a brain
this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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Winter world cup which meant more games and thus a prolonged season and shorter break before the new one...is where my money is going.
Too many games. Full stop.
too many games innit
and for once it's not us with the injury crisis. Not sure anything will be like 20/21 season
Don't jinx it. You can lose 2 starters in the space of a few days for 3 months when on international duty...
Mate we already lost Robbo…
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Video games
Word for fucking word what I came to say
Not sure about that mate. The number of domestic games played has been the same for 25+ years now. 38 league games, usual number of FA cup and EFL cup games too. A full UCL campaign has also been 13 games for 25+ years too. The world cup has been the same length for 25yrs as well and the Euros has only been one game longer in recent years since 2016.
All these extra games that people think of like the new UCL league format, the club world cup and the 48 team world cup have not been implemented yet. There's something else behind these injuries. It could be the increased intensity of the modern game or something else but blaming the number of games seems illogical because it hasn't changed much.
Longer injury time and the game has become more physical. Now it's normal for players to run 10-12 km, before it was only for specific roles. Even the speed increased.
So while the number of games didn't increase yet, the playtime and intensity has. And if the number of games increases the situation will get even worse
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It’s likely an issue of higher intensity plus something to do with the WC in Qatar last year. Norway didn’t qualify and Haaland was basically injury free all season which I thought was rare for him. Other players that played in both seemed way worse for the wear if they were playing 90-100 minutes in each WC match and late into the knockouts.
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too many games.
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not enough rotation because every player is expensive.
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players are getting more athletic so more forces put into the ground at higher speeds and shorter ground contact times.
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time off between seasons are way too short. pre seasons are way too short. 4 week preseason to go from sedentary to game speed is nowhere near enough.
Can’t overlook winter World Cup’s impact, that last season just didn’t end add in how competitive pre-season is getting (tours are not hammering a couple of local J-league sides anymore, it’s Arsenal and Utd kicking lumps out of each other!), when is the break? When was pre-season?
Also something I’d add is it’s not just player price, some of the most overworked players are youth products. Look at how much football Gavi and Saka have played last couple years.
Final point is PL related but the number of points needed to win a league now with how competitive the league is all the way down makes rotating players out hard. Sure Man City can rotate between Grealish and Doku, but how many even big sides have a £100m player and a back up £70m player with both happy to be there?
not enough rotation because every player is expensive so you're not going to rotate out your 100m man when every game is must win.
That is on the clubs. Top clubs have capacity to rotate but refuse to.
I see this repeated a lot but it’s not true in reality. Pep and Klopp rotate more than anyone. Having deep benches allow you to do that. Clubs with shallower benches are forced to play their best XI more often.
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Players don't even get proper summer rests because the clubs are desperate to get them playing all across the globe for exposure during those time periods.
Too many games, high intensity football, lack of proper rotations
And its only going to get worse next year because of the new format for European competitions
Hogh intensity football is an underrated aspect imo. 5 sears ago most of the lesser teams would play low blocks and sit back. Today almost every team plays a high press but not all the players are built for it.
And 10 early 2000s small teams didn’t even play low blocks just generically bad football with a bit of defence, bit of attack no tactical fouls and big sides would play bottom half clubs in cruise control.
The game is better for smaller clubs being significantly more capable, it’s one change I wouldn’t want to undo at all, but something has to give and tournaments should not be expanding at all as a bare minimum. It’s getting worse not better
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The level of premier league, cup and European games is relatively the same. However, the level of needless international friendliest, shoe-horned winter world cups and pointless nations league tournaments is ridiculous. Glad Harry Kane at least gets a winter break before the Euros.
I'm sorry how is a player playing for league and UCL in the same week different from playing in two international games in a week?
This argument is basically:
Players playing in games I like to watch is ok, players playing in games I don't like to watch is bad.
Has VAR also played some role here? I can imagine having 1-2 minute pauses several times a game can make you cool off pretty quickly and your muscles become more injury prone. I believe that's actually what happened to van de Ven in the Tottenham - Chelsea game for example
Van De Ven did not do his hamstring just because of a VAR pause. If the pauses were an issue you'd see it all the time in Rugby, which you don't...
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- coincidence
Jurgen just loves a moan..
his style of play is the main cause. high press, high intensity for 90+ minutes.
Liverpool don’t even have an injury problem this year compared to the rest. What are you on about?
I mean do you really need both Nations league and Euro’s?
I’m sure when the Nations League was first announced UEFA said that it would eventually replace Euros qualifiers. Probably changed their minds in favour of more cash.
As an aside I hate how big the Euros has become. When I was a kid it was 16 teams representing most of the top 20 international teams in the world. Short tournament, high quality, good fun. Now it’s too diluted.
The euros was peak at 16. Almost no dead rubbers even in the groups, just a quality tournament all round.
16 team euros was brutal, 1 bad game in he group and you could be out
now it just has a ton of filler, which on one hand is nice for the smaller nations that wouldn’t get to compete otherwise, but it always means some low stakes games
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I always find it interesting how people here always complain how nation team managers always play their best players for their qualification games (8-10 games spread over 2 years) and disregard how clubs don't rotate the same players in over 50 games per year.
Also disregard how their club probably goes to the USA, back to England and finish in East-Asia in preseason, playing up to 8 full games in preseason.
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New stoppage time rule? Did everyone forget about this.
World cup winter, no break
We just had a world Cup in the middle of a season, of course it will impact the following season
I casted a curse on them thats why.../s jesus fuck most of them play 60+ games a season. Thats why
No rotation
these things are never just one cause. style of play is the driver - high intensity for 90+ minutes.
Might be them 5 minute var checks. standing still for 5 mins then immediately springing again surely can’t be good for you over time
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If you asked me what the chances of, at some point in the season, there being at least 15% more injuries compared to the last 4 seasons or more at some point over the last few seasons then I would say ‘pretty high’. Surely 15% isn’t enough to make a statistical judgement just yet.
But then again I’m not a football statistician so whatevs
I mean a sample of 5 is pretty small, but the UK had a lot more rain than average in September and October so maybe softer grounds make it more likely for players to lose control when they're competing flat out. 🤷🏻
With the new extra time rules, games are probably about 15% longer.
Longer matches, with the new stoppage time rules
Seems like more and much longer VAR checks. When players have to stop, muscles get cold and more vulnerable to injury
It's not more matches, since we're talking about this season vs the last 4
Thats what you get when everyone are playing gegenpress these days
because fifa cant help but feel even more greedier than they already are
It's gonna be worse next year with euros in the summer.
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