this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2023
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Hypothetical stats:

  • His current completion percentage is 67.1%. If every dropped ball had been caught, his completion percentage would be 74% which would be 4% better than any other starting QB (Brock Purdy at 70%) in the league.

  • If the Chiefs had the average amount of dropped balls (11) instead of the most (26), Mahomes completion percentage would be 71% for best in the league.

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[–] Dr_Spaceman_DO@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

This is a dumb post overall, but really highlights how terrible our receivers are lol. Although Toney’s first game is still almost 20% of their drops this season

[–] estein1030@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

His current completion percentage is 67.1%. If every dropped ball had been caught, his completion percentage would be 74% which would be 4% better than any other starting QB (Brock Purdy at 70%) in the league.

Yeah sure, except you'd have to then adjust the completion % of every other QB to account for drops as well to make this comparison even remotely meaningful.

[–] Zestyclose_Main6335@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Now do the same for every other qb in the league. Purdy would probably be at like 75% at least if it wasn’t for drops

[–] N7_Evers@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Wtf is this dumb ass analysis? Yeah how about adjust this for EVERY QB in the league and not just your favorite or??

[–] Season_1_Strats@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Most of the “drops” are missed throws.

[–] BulLock_954@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Mahomes is getting the Mac Jones special. Horrible WRs play and separation. Should have paid Tyreek

[–] StonnorCalions@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Shit happens. He's gotten his fair share of miraculous breaks too. All averages out in the end.

[–] Tuber111@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

You can tell that you know what you posted was dumb by your lack of engagement in comments.

[–] toomuchsoysauce@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

I thought Dak's WRs let him down last season, but this is whole new level. There were so many strikes last night that my grandmother could've caught with her oven mitts.

[–] ConfusedStupidPerson@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

This is real dumb

[–] Dr-McLuvin@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

How does this compare to the league average? Drop %?

[–] weights408@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Maybe they should have paid Tyreek… you get what you pay for lol

[–] Wezzleey@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

This would be more informative if you simply changed the dropped passes to the league average.

[–] notorious_p_a_b@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

There’s a reason Tom Brady always took less money than he was entitled to.

[–] bobeshit@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

The Mahomes PR team is working overtime this week. Lol

[–] P319@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

For fairness shouldn't Purdy throws dropped be added on just to make it apples to apples

[–] Rainn__40@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

And I still think he’s gonna fuck everybody come playoff time

[–] ninergang47@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

stupid post

[–] prenderm@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Take away all the completions and see how good he is THEN!

[–] Techiedad91@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

We reached progress from the mean status

[–] polynomials@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

68.1% is still pretty good

[–] Celtictussle@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Progress his completion percentage to the mode.

[–] Reasonable_Emu_2636@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Unfortunately, the drops statistical doesn’t take into consideration he’s a bottom third QB in terms of on target%, despite being bottom 10 in IAY/PA

[–] tony_countertenor@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Ok but the way you word it sounds like you’re only adjusting Mahomes, are you adjusting all the other quarterback stats for drops also?

[–] Higgins8585@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

When your QB is getting paid 210mil from 2023-26, Chris Jones at 28mil, and you're paying 2 OLine handsomely you're gonna lack receivers.

Chiefs chose to build defense and OLine now, gotta live with bad receivers.

[–] Icefiight@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

Now do every qb in the league!

Come on man… every team has dropped passes… trust me. As a Bears fan this is just “what happens” normally…. I think chiefs fans have had it too good for too long lol

[–] Badalight@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Only one team is #1 in the league in drops.

[–] Grizza@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Jordan Love feels his pain (although Mahomes is at a completely different and elite level, this shit hurts).

[–] Pestuji@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

So I think the only way these stats would matter much at all is if you calculated drops as a percentage of attempted passes for every team in the league and then used that average instead of the raw numbers. The Chiefs pass a lot. Then you'd have to adjust everyone's stats toward the "expected" number of drops in order to compare them much at all.

Of course, this stat is a bit too subjective to be super relevant anyway lol

[–] Soup-Intelligent@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Is Mahomes adjusting to the mean?

[–] giggity_giggity@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

What is amazing to me about Mahomes is how effortless his throws look - even his long throws. Rodgers - as a counter example - always looked to me like he was exerting in his throws. But Mahomes looks like he is handing someone a grocery bag filled with popcorn - but really it was a dart thrown 40 yards down field.

[–] MicroTinies@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Y’all bending over backwards to gobble this dude’s dick, huh?

[–] SoKrat3s@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Adjusted by removing drops, spikes, and throwaways;

Rank Player Adj QB Rat
1 Brock Purdy 122.1
2 Russell Wilson 114.9
3 Tua Tagovailoa 113.0
4 Kirk Cousins 111.9
5 Dak Prescott 111.4
6 C.J. Stroud 108.6
7 Jared Goff 107.8
8 Lamar Jackson 107.8
9 Josh Allen 106.0
10 Justin Herbert 105.3
11 Jalen Hurts 104.2
12 Patrick Mahomes 103.2
13 Justin Fields 101.9
14 Joe Burrow 99.8
15 Will Levis 98.7
16 Trevor Lawrence 98.0
17 Derek Carr 97.8
18 Geno Smith 97.7
19 Baker Mayfield 97.5
20 Sam Howell 96.7
21 Deshaun Watson 94.0
22 Gardner Minshew II 92.3
23 Jordan Love 90.9
24 Desmond Ridder 90.5
25 Matthew Stafford 89.9
26 Joshua Dobbs 89.5
27 Kenny Pickett 85.4
28 Mac Jones 85.3
29 Bryce Young 83.7
30 Zach Wilson 82.8
31 Jimmy Garoppolo 82.4
32 Ryan Tannehill 78.7
33 Tyson Bagent 77.2
34 Daniel Jones 76.6
35 Aidan O'Connell 74.7

^(min: 100 att)

[–] Biggest_Cans@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago
[–] Killthemwithcuteness@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Isn’t this what happens when you get paid $50m a year? The salary cap has to come from somewhere. At least they have a decent O-line to protect him so he can wait, scramble and throw it to Kelce.

Or maybe the drops is a reversion to the mean? His past receivers have made him look good ala Purdy /s

[–] DonBonDarley69@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Let's not pretend that some of those INTs were simply just terrible throws

[–] geno_slice@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

Did you just adjust Mahomes' stats away from the mean?

[–] HousingParking9079@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

FYI: Unless I missed something, this stat ignores drops by Purdy's targets, if any.

[–] forward1213@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

My first thought too. "Lets bump this guy up and compare him to this other guy, but not bump that guy up!"

[–] Rolf69@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

SMH, Patrick can’t with a Super Bowl with those cats.

[–] AnthonyBarrHeHe@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

We see stuff like this then Mahomes ends up with the AFC title game or superbowl every year lol

[–] OJSimpsons@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

If you took all of Josh Allen's incompletions and made them touchdowns instead, he would have 138 on the year (including the 22 passing touchdowns he already has) which would make him the clear front runner for MVP.

[–] MentalAdhesiveness79@alien.top 1 points 11 months ago

OP is really reaching for those grapes