It's tough because I feel MVPs are often given to players prior to their team being fully ready to win a chip, and by the time their team is built out, voter fatigue kicks in. Happened to the warriors, Bucks nuggets. Happened to lebron in the years he didn't get mvp but won a title.
Seems like Jokic and Giannis have the best chance this year. And I'm a homer so I'll throw KD in the mix as well.