this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2024
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/12971023

Hi folks, out of pure curiosity, I was poking some graphs.

It's been about half a year since the big API protest, so I was curious to see what Lemmy's crtitical mass looks like, what the staying power is, etc. Screenshots taken from https://the-federation.info/platform/73 on 2024-01-09. I'm posting screenshots because they're a snapshot in time, and because that stats server is very slow.

Because I'm posting on lemmy.ca, I'll post quite a few related to this instance, but it's probably more widely applicable and you can get graphs from your instance too. I'll also post some lemmy.world and lemmy.ml graphs, since they make interesting points of comparison -- biggest server, and original server.

First, lemmy-wide total users count, where this is a rolling one month window. If a user was online within the month, they count here.

First observation -- there's some jagged edges in the graph due to things popping in and out of the federation. So it's probably more useful to look at single servers. Lemmy.world came online pretty much coincidentally with the API protest and had open registration, so it makes a good data point. You can see the surge of users, then the plateau of the people who stuck around:

Lemmy.ml below has a similar curve, plus some sort of data artefact.

As does lemmy.ca, below:

I suspect the data artifact is related to the transition from 0.18 to 0.19 and something changed in the way active users was counted in between. Lemmy.world is still running 0.18.5.

Notes: The difference between the peak and the plateau is higher on lemmy.world and lemmy.ml -- I suspect this is because they were more popular places to sign up during the protest. Whereas lemmy.ca has retained more users, as a percentage. Still, the total number of active users on each server is quite low.

In the same order (total, lemmy.world, lemmy.ml, lemmy.ca), total posts. The slope of this line represents post rate. Steeper line is better. Flat line means dead instance.

And comments. I wish there was a comments to posts ratio, which would be some indication of engagement levels. But you can sort of work it out.

Anyway, looks like post rate has decreased slightly since the initial bump, but are still looking good. But the comment rate hasn't flattened as much. So the users that were retained seem to be more engaged than the users from the initial bump. I think this is a good thing for the health of lemmy. Likewise, the growth in supported apps, improvements to the software (Scaled sort in 0.19 is night-and-day better than anything prior!), and others will allow lemmy to not only survive, but be ready for whatever influx happens next.

I want to send a special shout out to all the admins, particularly on my home instance of lemmy.ca, and the coders who keep improving things. Thanks for giving us all a home!

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[–] kbal@fedia.io 6 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Meanwhile if you're curious how reddit has been doing, just look at this chart

[–] JustZ@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

You the real MVP of this meme.

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[–] onlinepersona@programming.dev 6 points 11 months ago (1 children)

That's nice. Reddit just needs to fuck up once again and we'll maybe double again in users, then lose half of those that joined and be at 50% from now.

Once Forgejo and Gitlab have ActivityPub, more services like Wordpress and Flipboard activate it, and kbin/mbin/lemmy/mastodon becomes able to interact with them, then we might see some organic growth. If we get to a point where people don't even know they're part of the fediverse yet interact with it naturally, then maybe we'll see explosive growth. All in time though. There's no rush.

CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

[–] MaxVoltage@lemmy.world 1 points 11 months ago

didnt read no bump 👆🤣🇺🇸🌀🦈🔨🤮

[–] gedaliyah@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

Excellent work. Thank you!

[–] Blaze@lemm.ee 5 points 11 months ago

Great post, thanks!

[–] JustZ@lemmy.world 4 points 11 months ago

I'm fairly sure that explosions, tsunamis, and cardiac arrest all begin with a similar waveform. Those things all tend to be exponential in scale.

I don't even use lemmy and that was interesting to read.

[–] key@lemmy.keychat.org 4 points 11 months ago
[–] Spzi@lemm.ee 4 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I find the plateau quite puzzling (lemmy.world, but the total looks very similar):

There was quite a steep increase, and then it suddenly stopped.

I would rather expect it to slow down, than to stop that abruptly.

We're looking at a fairly large group of people making a decision to create an account on Lemmy. There are plenty of reasons to expect it to be fuzzy. Even if they all responded to one particular event in time, some would have done so immediately, others the next day, few more even later.

[–] troyunrau@lemmy.ca 3 points 11 months ago

It's because it is a one month rolling window.

[–] Clbull@lemmy.world 3 points 11 months ago (2 children)

I'm curious, what led to the December user spike?

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[–] NegativeLookBehind@kbin.social 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (5 children)
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[–] pruwybn@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 11 months ago

I suspect the data artifact is related to the transition from 0.18 to 0.19 and something changed in the way active users was counted in between.

My understanding is they started counting votes as activity.

The difference between the peak and the plateau is higher on lemmy.world and lemmy.ml -- I suspect this is because they were more popular places to sign up during the protest.

Makes sense that people who care enough to look into smaller instances would be more committed.

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