TSLA is down about 30% from 6 months ago, and down about 18% from 1 month ago.
But, it's still MASSIVELY overvalued.
The typical, basic way to value a stock is with its P/E ratio. The price of the stock compared to its earnings per share. Even after this "bloodbath", Tesla's P/E ratio is approximately 175.
What's a P/E ratio for a typical well run car company? Toyota's P/E ratio is approximately 10. GM's P/E ratio is about 35. Mercedes-Benz is at about 9.
Tesla just had a disastrous earnings report. The Cybertruck was the least successful automobile ever produced. The man most associated with the Tesla brand is toxic to the left, and the people who might want to buy a pricey EV are mostly lefties. To me, the highest Tesla's P/E ratio should be at this point in time is maybe 10. To achieve that, its price would have to be approximately 1/20th of what it currently is. It would have to lose 95% of its current value. And, that would just be treating it as a reasonably well run car company that maybe had an off quarter.
Looking at it another way, Tesla sold approximately 1.5 million vehicles last year. Toyota sold about 10 million. If investors were sane, Toyota would be valued at approximately 7x Tesla's value. Instead, Tesla is valued at $1.2 trillion, but Toyota is valued at only $200B.
Right now, 1000 shares in Tesla would cost you about $300,000 USD. If someone offered to sell me 1000 shares for only $3000 USD, on the condition that I couldn't sell them for 10 years, I wouldn't buy them, even at a 99% discount. I honestly don't think Tesla is going to exist in 10 years.
