deejpro11

… didn’t MEM tank the year they traded Gasol and then drafted Ja?

This year I’m more inclined to agree that LAC should be better than OKC, if PG and Kawhi play 50+ games. And maybe they both gut out more games since they’re in contract years. But if they’re in the 35-40 games played range OKC could definitely be ahead of them and LAC could be in play-in range or worse.

Next year and ‘26 all bets are off completely though. And if LAC is anywhere in the lottery next year that swap is going to look a lot better. (Also with another year of growth OKC should have a pick in the 20s)

I wouldn’t downplay the risk of losing PG and Kawhi after this year though. I agree it would most likely be a S&T so LAC would get something if they left, but what assets are they getting back to prevent a large step back? They can get draft picks sure but is any young team going to trade a blue chipper on a rookie deal for either of them, or even both?

I mean maybe Ballmer just grossly overpays them for the opening of the new arena, but they’re going to be 34 and 35 when they sign their new deals.

I wouldn’t bet either way - they lost in the play-in in ‘22 and were only 2 games out of 9th last year. The West is probably going to be a similar jumbled bloodbath this year too.

If you told me they were in the WCF this year, I wouldn’t be surprised. If you told me they handed OKC another lottery pick this year, I wouldn’t be that surprised (I’d probably just chalk it up to PG and Kawhi missing too much time with injuries and their depth being too old).

They’re easily the highest-variance team out there due to how many games Kawhi and PG miss, and they can’t rebuild quickly if one or both leave after this year either

Just to make the math work salary wise it has to be one of Herro/Lowry. If Herro then it has to be Martin to make the money work. If it’s Lowry it could then be Martin or a combination of smaller salaries.

I’m certainly not suggesting it’s a 4-for-1, and unless 1sts are involved I’m not really sure why OKC is involved anyway. I can’t imagine they give up something so valuable and take Herro, and certainly not Lowry

Probably more like OKC gets a small asset and MIA’s 1st in ‘25 or ‘26 fully unprotected. Maybe Herro or Lowry plus Jaquez or Caleb Martin to PHI, MIA’s ‘25 first unprotected to OKC, Harden to MIA, and some smaller stuff to complete it out