So I'm a fairly new basketball fan. I didn't follow the NBA at all in 2019. I knew that the Warriors were one of the best teams and I knew who Stephen Curry and Lebron James were, but that was about as far as my basketball knowledge went. I certainly didn't know who Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or even Paul George were back then. So just today I was reading through Shai's Wikipedia article and found out that not only did he used to play for the Clippers, but he was traded to Thunder for Paul George.
Just to refresh your memory, the Clippers sent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and five future first round picks to the Thunder in exchange for George. At the time Gilgeous-Alexander had just completed his rookie year, in which he started 73 games for the Clippers but averaged only 10 points and 26 minutes per game. Now, he was just named to the All-NBA first team with the Thunder.
So I'm curious what you thought of the trade then and what you think of it now. What did people generally think of the trade at the time? Was it panned or did people think it was a good deal? For me, I think the Clippers made a mistake. Paul George is still good and I'm certainly not saying he's washed, but he's a full eight years older than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai could easily play 10-15 more years, while George has 5 years left at best. If the Clippers had won a championship with George, you could argue it was worth it, but they haven't. I think that the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and whatever they could have turned those five first round picks into certainly would be better than just Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Thunder on the other hand, with their young core of SGA, Giddey, and Holmgren, could look pretty scary in 2-3 years. I certainly think the Thunder got the better end of the deal.
What did you think of the trade at the time? Have you changed your mind in retrospect?
I wouldn’t bet either way - they lost in the play-in in ‘22 and were only 2 games out of 9th last year. The West is probably going to be a similar jumbled bloodbath this year too.
If you told me they were in the WCF this year, I wouldn’t be surprised. If you told me they handed OKC another lottery pick this year, I wouldn’t be that surprised (I’d probably just chalk it up to PG and Kawhi missing too much time with injuries and their depth being too old).
They’re easily the highest-variance team out there due to how many games Kawhi and PG miss, and they can’t rebuild quickly if one or both leave after this year either
Kawhi and PG aren't leaving for nothing after this season. Stars don't move in free agency anymore. And I don't think anyone is gonna want to pay them as much as Balmer is going to be willing to. The Clippers won't have incentive to tank either if they don't have control over their own pick for 2 seasons.
They are a high variance team, but I still think most of their outcomes, they end up as better than OKC for the next two seasons. The swap might convey, it might not. And if it does, do you really see the swap moving OKC's draft position up more than a couple of spots? If they do use the swap, I would be shocked if it was more than like 13 for 16
This year I’m more inclined to agree that LAC should be better than OKC, if PG and Kawhi play 50+ games. And maybe they both gut out more games since they’re in contract years. But if they’re in the 35-40 games played range OKC could definitely be ahead of them and LAC could be in play-in range or worse.
Next year and ‘26 all bets are off completely though. And if LAC is anywhere in the lottery next year that swap is going to look a lot better. (Also with another year of growth OKC should have a pick in the 20s)
I wouldn’t downplay the risk of losing PG and Kawhi after this year though. I agree it would most likely be a S&T so LAC would get something if they left, but what assets are they getting back to prevent a large step back? They can get draft picks sure but is any young team going to trade a blue chipper on a rookie deal for either of them, or even both?
I mean maybe Ballmer just grossly overpays them for the opening of the new arena, but they’re going to be 34 and 35 when they sign their new deals.